发达国家低生育率的理论解释与经验研究  

Theoretical Explanations and Empirical Studies of Low Fertility in Developed Countries

作　　者：石智雷 廖华[2,3] Shi Zhilei;Liao Hua

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073 [3]中南财经政法大学人口与健康研究中心,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《河南社会科学》2025年第4期114-124,共11页Henan Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“生育支持政策试点效果跟踪评估与生育友好型社会构建研究”(19ARK004)。

摘　　要：西方发达国家在20世纪70年代便已进入低生育率阶段,总结其低生育率理论和经验研究可为我国应对“少子化”危机提供先行借鉴。西方发达国家的低生育率演进特征表现为:总和生育率持续下降、生育年龄普遍推迟以及女性世代繁衍能力减弱。关于低生育率的理论解释,第一次人口转变理论和伊斯特林现代性理论从社会层面论述了现代性发展对生育率的影响;新家庭经济学理论和财富流理论从家庭层面阐释了家庭结构和功能变化对家庭生育决策的影响;第二次人口转变理论和社会流动性理论从个体层面探究了人们内在价值观变化对个体生育行为的影响。基于现代性理论的经验研究显示,导致生育率下降的主要因素是城市化与经济发展、教育改革与人力资本提升、女性地位提高和性别平等、公共卫生与医疗条件改善、新商品涌现与消费偏好变化、风险社会与不确定性增加等。Western developed countries entered the low fertility stage in the 1970s.Summarising their low fertility theories and experiences can provide a reference for our country to cope with the crisis of hypospadias.The evolution of low fertility in developed countries is characterised by a continuous decline in the total fertility rate(TFR),a general delay in the age at childbearing,and a weakening of women’s ability to reproduce over generations.As for the theoretical explanations of low fertility,the First Population Transition Theory and Easterlin’s Modernity Theory discuss the impact of modernity on fertility at the societal level;the New Economics of the Family Theory and Wealth Stream Theory explain the impact of changes in the structure and function of the family on the family’s fertility decision-making at the family level;and the Second Population Transition Theory and Social Mobility Theory explore the impact of changes in intrinsic values of the people on individual fertility behaviour at the individual level.The Second Population Transition Theory and Social Mobility Theory explore the impact of changes in people’s intrinsic values on individual fertility behaviour.Empirical studies based on modernity theory show that the main factors leading to fertility decline are urbanisation and economic development,education reform and human capital enhancement,women’s advancement and gender equality,improved public health and medical care,the emergence of new commodities and changes in consumer preferences,and risky societies and increased uncertainty.

关 键 词：发达国家 低生育率 发展趋势 理论解释 经验研究 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]