Eigen microstate analysis unveils climate dynamics  

作　　者：Hua Tu Shang Wang Jun Meng Yongwen Zhang Xiaosong Chen Deliang Chen Jingfang Fan 

机构地区：[1]School of Systems Science/Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [2]Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [3]Data Science Research Center,Faculty of Science,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China [4]Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [5]Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden [6]Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,Potsdam 14412,Germany

出　　处：《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》2025年第4期91-100,共10页中国科学:物理学、力学、天文学(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42450183,12275020,12135003,12205025,and42461144209);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFE0109000);supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。

摘　　要：The Earth's climate operates as a complex,dynamically interconnected system,driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings and modulated by nonlinear interactions and feedback loops.This study employs a theoretical framework and the Eigen Microstate(EM)approach of statistical physics to examine global surface temperature variations since 1948,as revealed by a global reanalysis.We identified EMs significantly correlated with key climate phenomena such as the global monsoon system,tropical climates,and El Niño.Our analysis reveals that these EMs have increasingly influenced global surface temperature variations over recent decades,highlighting the critical roles of hemispheric differences,land-sea contrasts,and tropical climate fluctuations in a warming world.Additionally,we used model simulations from more than 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under three future climate scenarios to perform a comparative analysis of the changes in each EM contribution.The results indicate that under future warming scenarios,tropical climate fluctuations will become increasingly dominant,while traditional hemispheric and monsoonal patterns may decline.This shift underscores the importance of understanding tropical dynamics and their impact on global climate from a physics-based perspective.Our study provides a new perspective on understanding and addressing global climate change,enhancing the theoretical foundation of this critical field,and yielding findings with significant practical implications for improving climate models and developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

关 键 词：statistical physics nonlinear dynamics complex systems climate change 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] N941.4[自然科学总论—系统科学]