在险增长分析框架下中国海洋科技创新对海洋经济发展的影响机制研究  

Research on the Influence Mechanism of China's Marine Science and Technology Innovation on Marine Economy Development Under the Analysis Framework of Growth-at-Risk

作　　者：任仙玲[1] 裴雨欣 Ren Xianling;Pei Yuxin(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266075,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266075

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2025年第2期126-133,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

摘　　要：在世界经济增速连续放缓的背景下,中国建设海洋强国势在必行。海洋科技创新是发挥海洋经济“蓝色引擎”作用的重要手段。因此,基于在险增长分析框架,利用2006—2019年中国11个沿海省份的面板数据,构造面板分位数回归模型并拟合海洋经济发展水平的条件分布,分析海洋科技创新对预期海洋经济发展水平整体分布及尾部风险的影响。研究发现:海洋科技创新驱动作用因海洋经济发展水平的不同而存在异质性,且在短、中期内海洋科技创新可有效缓解海洋经济下行风险;在资源禀赋较高的地区,海洋科技创新对海洋经济发展的作用显著;海洋科技创新通过海洋产业结构升级促进海洋经济发展;教育投资和信息化水平可调节科技创新对海洋经济的影响效果。因此,为推动中国海洋经济进一步高质量发展,一方面要及时关注海洋经济风险,另一方面也要加强海洋科技创新的投入。Against the backdrop of a continuous slowdown in world economic growth,it is imperative to build China into a strong maritime country,and the innovation of marine science and technology is an important means to play the role of the"blue engine"of the marine economy.Therefore,based on the analytical framework of growth-at-risk,the panel data of 11 coastal regions of China from 2006 to 2019 are used to construct the panel quantile regression model which fits the conditional distribution of marine economic development level,and the impact of marine scientific and technological innovation on the overall distribution of expected marine economic development level and tail risk are analyzed.Research result shows as follows:the driving effect of marine science and technology innovation is heterogeneous due to different levels of marine economy development,and the marine science and technology innovation can be effectively alleviated in the short and medium term downside risks to the marine economy;in areas with high resource endowment,marine science and technology innovation plays a significant role in the development of marine economy;marine science and technology innovation promotes the development of marine economy through the upgrading of marine industrial structure;education investment and information level can adjust the effect of science and technology innovation on marine economy.Therefore,in order to promote the further high-quality development of marine economy,on the one hand,China should pay timely attention to the risks of marine economy,and on the other hand should strengthen the investment in marine science and technology innovation.

关 键 词：海洋经济发展 海洋科技创新 在险增长 面板分位数回归 

分 类 号：P74[天文地球—海洋科学] F204[经济管理—国民经济] F224[文化科学] G301