基于专家评价和层次分析法的前沿科技项目后评估体系研究  

Research on the Post-Assessment System of Frontier Science and Technology Projects Based on Expert Evaluation and Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：赵利平 耿国桐 于田 赵修涛 Zhao Liping;Geng Guotong;Yu Tian;Zhao Xiutao(Space Engineering University,Beijing 101416,China;Institute of National Defense Science and Technology Innovation,Academy of Military Science,Beijing 100071,China;Military Science Information Research Center,Academy of Military Science,Beijing 100142,China;School of Economics and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China;Institute of Science and Technology,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]航天工程大学,北京101416 [2]军事科学院国防科技创新研究院,北京100071 [3]军事科学院军事科学信息研究中心,北京100142 [4]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [5]哈尔滨工程大学科学技术研究院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2025年第3期208-215,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：省市级科研项目的6位专家参与;在第二阶段,则邀请了10位在科研管理岗位上具有3年以上经验的管理人员及具备丰富科研经验的研究人员参与。

摘　　要：中国前沿科技项目数量呈现出显著增长态势,但现有的后评估体系难以对前沿科技项目进行有效后评估。因此,针对如何运用现代化手段对前沿科技项目进行有效后评估,基于专家评价和层次分析法提出前沿科技项目后评估体系,涉及6项一级指标以及15项二级指标,其中国家政府任务目标、“卡脖子”技术、技术成果以及学术成果4项指标在评价体系中占据最为重要的地位。利用该评估体系对中国政府重点扶持的8个国家级前沿科技项目进行打分,结果表明,该评估体系具有较高的准确性和可靠性,能够有效反映项目的实际绩效,可以为科技管理决策提供科学依据。针对前沿科技项目管理后评估体系存在的问题,从项目管理、成果产出、经济效益、社会效益、人才培养和满意度6个方面提出具体对策建议,包括提高对项目管理的重视程度、推动项目成果转化、提高经济效益和社会效益等。In the era of global scientific and technological innovation,the number of frontier science and technology projects in China has increased significantly due to national strategic support.However,the existing post-evaluation system is difficult to effectively evaluate these projects.Traditional methods like expert scoring have flaws,such as an incomplete index system and strong subjectivity.This paper proposes a post-evaluation system for frontier science and technology projects based on expert evaluation and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP).First,relevant policies are studied,and expert interviews are conducted to establish a preliminary index system.After two rounds of expert scoring and refinement,a system with 6 primary and 15 secondary indicators is formed.The AHP is then used to determine the weight of each indicator,making the evaluation more scientific.The evaluation system was used to score eight national-level frontier science and technology projects supported by the Chinese government.The results indicate that the evaluation system has high accuracy and reliability,effectively reflecting the actual performance of the projects,and can provide scientific evidence for science and technology management decisions.In response to the issues in the post-evaluation system for frontier science and technology project management,specific strategic recommendations are made from six aspects:project management,output results,economic benefits,social benefits,talent cultivation,and satisfaction,which include increasing the focus on project management,promoting the transformation of project outcomes,and enhancing economic and social benefits,among others.

关 键 词：前沿科技项目 项目后评价 项目管理 评价方法 专家评价 层次分析法 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学] F224[文化科学] G301