科技人才在中国发达城市间对流的原因  

Reasons for the Flow of Scientific and Technological Talents Among Developed Cities in China

作　　者：孙巍 王蒲生 Sun Wei;Wang Pusheng(Shenzhen Huayou Innovation Service Co.,LTD,Shenzhen 518000,China;Shenzhen International Graduate School,Tsinghua University,Shenzhen 518000,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳华友创新服务有限公司,广东深圳518000 [2]清华大学深圳国际研究生院,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2025年第3期216-228,共13页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：深圳市哲学社会科学规划重点课题“粤港澳大湾区高水平人才高地建设研究”(SZ2024A001);深圳市高等院校稳定支持计划面上项目“世界科学中心转移规律与深圳建设世界人才和创新中心研究”(WDZC20231127152239002)。

摘　　要：在传统人口迁移理论中,科技人才主要从落后地区向发达地区流动,当今的科技人才流动与之不同,多向性与多元化成为重要特征,尤其是发达城市之间的科技人才对流不断增加。基于传统的引力模型,通过中国一线城市和部分二线城市2012—2021年的人口规模及R&D人员折合全时当量的面板数据进行分析,得出科技人才在中国发达城市间对流变化趋势。结果发现:科技人才在发达城市间对流有多个原因,人力资本回报率是其直接原因;通过与经济学发达国家间国际贸易成为主流的解释做类比,认为其深层次的原因在于规模效应和科技产出效率;在大科学背景下,区域的科技合作要求使得科技资源集聚的一线城市成为科技合作的主力;国家对科技载体的战略布局以及地方的柔性引才政策等也都有助于一线发达城市间的人才对流。基于上述思考,引入人力资本回报率、规模效应和科技产出效率、区域的科技合作要求、国家对科技载体的战略布局以及地方的柔性引才政策等方面因素对原引力模型进行改进;同时指出,上述因素的有关衡量指标选择目前仍存在一定困难,难以完全从定量的角度进行分析。The flow of scientific and technological talents can be divided into four main patterns.First,the flow of talent from regions with low economic development to more developed areas aligns with the traditional population flow theory.Second,there has been an increasing,though still relatively rare,movement of talent between less developed regions,as well as from developed regions to less developed ones.Third,the flow of scientific and technological talents among developed regions is a growing trend,characterized by its multi-directional and diverse nature.Using the traditional gravity model and based on the panel data of population size,full-time equivalent of R&D personnel,GDP,fixed asset investment,and resident income of four first-tier cities(Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen)and six second-tier cities(Chongqing,Chengdu,Tianjin,Xi'an,Hangzhou,Nanjing)during 2012-2021,the movement trend and the change of scientific and technological talent among developed cities in China is analyzed.Through the gravity model,the share and proportion of the flow of scientific and technological talents in the first-tier cities are constantly increasing.There are several reasons for this trend,and the rate of return on human capital is its direct cause.Drawing an analogy to the explanation that international trade has become the dominant trend among developed countries in economics,the author holds that the underlying reason lies in the scale effect and the efficiency of scientific and technological output.In the context of big science,the requirements of regional science and technology cooperation make the first-tier cities with concentrated science and technology resources become the main force of science and technology cooperation.The state's strategic layout of science and technology carriers and local flexible talent attracting policies also contribute to the talent flow among first-tier developed cities.Based on the above considerations,factors such as human capital return rate,scale effect,scientific and technological output

关 键 词：科技人才 人才流动 人口迁移 发达城市 引力模型 模型改进 

分 类 号：G316[文化科学] F224[经济管理—国民经济] G301