基于博弈论组合赋权-云模型的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价  

Evaluation of Coal and Gas Outburst Risk Based on Game Theory Combination Weighting Method and Cloud Model

作　　者：田燚 王沉 刘雪岭 舒仕海 阮毅 王玉丽 彭英健 邓小虎 TIAN Yi;WANG Chen;LIU Xueling;SHU Shihai;RUAN Yi;WANG Yuli;PENG Yingjian;DENG Xiaohu(College of Physics and Engineering Technology,Xingyi Normal University for Nationalities,Xingyi 562400,China;Mining College,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]兴义民族师范学院物理与工程技术学院,贵州兴义562400 [2]贵州大学矿业学院,贵阳550025

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2025年第4期180-185,共6页Coal Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52174072,51964008);贵州省教育厅青年成长项目黔教合KY字﹝2022﹞105号。

摘　　要：为改进现有煤与瓦斯突出评价模型,难以兼顾煤与瓦斯突出评价指标的模糊性与未确知性、权重分配不合理等,导致评价结果不准确问题,选取12项煤与瓦斯突出影响因素作为评价关键指标,运用博弈论组合赋权法与云模型建立了煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价模型,并将模型应用于大安煤矿、开发煤矿、遵沿煤矿、杨山煤矿、立新煤矿、玉带煤矿,进行了突出危险性评价。结果表明:云模型实现了煤与瓦斯突出评价指标由定性到定量转换,通过博弈论确定了评价指标的合理权重,瓦斯压力对煤与瓦斯突出影响最大,工作面推进速度对煤与瓦斯突出影响最小;大安煤矿和立新煤矿突出安全等级为“Ⅰ”级,开发煤矿、遵沿煤矿及玉带煤矿安全等级为“Ⅱ”级,杨山煤矿为“Ⅳ”级,评价结果与煤矿生产实际一致,表明模型具有一定的适用性与有效性。可为类似煤矿提供参考。In order to improve the existing coal and gas outburst evaluation model,which is difficult to take into account the fuzziness and uncertainty of coal and gas outburst evaluation indexes and the unreasonable weight distribution,resulting in inaccurate evaluation results,12 factors affecting coal and gas outburst were selected as key evaluation indexes,and the evaluation model of coal and gas outburst risk was established by using the game theory combined weight method and cloud model.The model was applied to Da′an coal mine,Kaifa coal mine,Zunyan coal mine,Yangshan coal mine,Lixin coal mine and Yudai coal mine for outburst risk evaluation.The results show that:the cloud model realizes the transformation of coal and gas outburst evaluation indexes from qualitative to quantitative,and the reasonable weight of evaluation indexes is determined by the game theory.The gas pressure has the greatest impact on coal and gas outburst,and the working face advance speed has the smallest impact on coal and gas outburst.The outburst safety grade of Da′an coal mine and Lixin coal mine is"Ⅰ",the safety grade of Kaifa coal mine,Zunyan coal mine and Yudai coal mine is"Ⅱ",and the safety grade of Yangshan coal mine is"Ⅳ".The evaluation results are consistent with the actual coal mine production engineering,indicating that the model has certain applicability and effectiveness.It can provide reference for similar coal mine safety production.

关 键 词：煤与瓦斯突出 博弈论 云模型 安全评价 

分 类 号：TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]