挤入抑或挤出:政府资助对基金会所获金钱捐赠和时间捐赠的影响  

Crowd In or Crowd Out:The Impact of Government Funding on Donations of Time and Money to Nonprofits:Evidence From Chinese Foundations

作　　者：吴中盛 朱飞宇 WU Zhongsheng;ZHU Feiyu(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《公共管理评论》2024年第4期256-281,共26页China Public Administration Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“政府资助对慈善捐赠的影响及作用机制研究:理论框架、实证检验与政策优化”(项目批准号:72404243);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“浙大文科‘青峰计划’”的资助。

摘　　要：政府的支持性政策对我国社会组织的发展有着重要影响。国内外研究者就政府资助对社会组织金钱捐赠的影响提出了挤出效应、挤入效应和非线性效应等多种理论模型,但尚未形成定论;而有关政府资助对时间捐赠影响的研究则相当缺乏。基于2015年度2997家中国基金会的数据,本研究通过多元回归和边际效应预估,探究了政府资助对社会组织捐赠收入和志愿者数量的影响,并通过拓展回归模型对结果进行了稳健性检验。实证分析显示,政府资助与捐赠收入之间呈现“U形”关系,政府资助水平较低时会挤出捐赠收入,在政府资助超过一定水平后即会挤入捐赠收入。与之相反,政府资助与志愿者数量之间则呈现“倒U形”关系,政府资助水平较低时会挤入志愿者数量,而政府资助水平较高时则会挤出志愿者数量。本文的结论不仅能在理论上拓展既有的挤入/挤出效应模型,且能为中国情境下政府制定对社会组织的支持性政策提供证据支撑。Supportive policies by the government have important impacts on the development of nonprofit organizations,especially on the financial and human resources that nonprofit organizations receive.Existing studies in the Western context have proposed and verified the crowd-in,crowd-out,and inverted U-shaped non-linear models of government funding on money donations to nonprofit organizations,yet existing empirical evidence is still non-conclusive.In addition,evidence on the impact of government funding on donations of time to nonprofits is extremely scarce.There is also a lack of empirical testing on this topic in the Chinese context.To address the gap in the literature,this study applied statistical analyses to explore the impact of government funding on donations of both time and money to nonprofits in the Chinese context based on a sample of 2997 foundations in China.Results from statistical analyses indicate that the level of government funding has a U-shaped relationship with donations of money to Chinese foundations:when the level of government funding is relatively low,it may first crowd out donations of money,and then crowd in money donations when it increases to a certain point.Conversely,government funding has an inverted U-shaped relationship with donations of time to Chinese foundations:when the level of government funding is below a certain level,it may first crowd in donations of time,and then crowd out donations of time when it is above that level.These results are confirmed by robustness check analyses based on an extended regression model.The findings of this study provide important theoretical contributions to the crowd-out/in literature:this study not only extends testing of the existing crowd-out/in model to the Chinese context and reveals novel non-linear effects on money donations to Chinese foundations but also expands the model to test the relationship between government funding and donations of time to nonprofits,revealing an inverted U-shaped non-linear effect on time donations to Chinese fou

关 键 词：政府资助 金钱捐赠 时间捐赠 挤入效应 挤出效应 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]