地球系统数值模拟研究进展与科学前沿  

Progress and scientific frontiers in numerical simulation of the Earth system

作　　者：朱佳雷 董建志 张永根 孙少波 姜哲[1] 周浩然 赵曦[1] 李攀[1] 陈伟[1] 王礼春 李新[1] 刘丛强[1] ZHU Jialei;DONG Jianzhi;ZHANG Yonggen;SUN Shaobo;JIANG Zhe;ZHOU Haoran;ZHAO Xi;LI Pan;CHEN Wei;WANG Lichun;LI Xin;Liu Cong-Qiang(Center for Earth System Modeling,School of Earth System Science,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300100,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学地球系统科学学院地球系统数值模拟研究中心,天津300100

出　　处：《地学前缘》2025年第3期118-136,共19页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42177082)。

摘　　要：地球系统模式是理解和预测全球变化的核心工具,近年来取得了显著进展。其性能提升体现在圈层耦合过程的精细化发展,以及圈层内复杂物理和化学过程的逐步引入。不确定性的降低则得益于新方法和新技术的发展和应用。然而,地球系统模式仍面临诸多挑战,包括对复杂交互过程的表征能力不足、社会-生态系统过程模拟的局限性,以及区域极端事件模拟能力的提升需求。未来的发展需深化跨学科协作,借助新技术强化数据获取与模型预测能力,同时聚焦社会-生态系统过程及其影响机制的研究,以增强对区域极端事件的模拟与预测能力,构建完善的陆-海-气-人相互耦合的新一代地球系统模式,为人类社会的可持续发展及全球变化的应对和预测提供更科学的支撑。Earth system models are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change and have made significant strides in recent years.These advancements are evident in the more detailed representation of coupled processes across Earth’s spheres and the integration of increasingly sophisticated physical and chemical processes within them.The reduction in model uncertainties has been driven by the adoption of innovative methods and cutting-edge technologies.Nonetheless,challenges persist,including limitations in capturing complex interactive processes,difficulties in simulating socio-ecological systems,and the need to enhance the modeling of regional extreme events.Moving forward,efforts should prioritize fostering interdisciplinary collaboration,harnessing emerging technologies to improve data acquisition and predictive accuracy,and deepening research into socio-ecological processes and their impacts.Such initiatives will bolster the ability to model and predict regional extreme events while paving the way for next-generation Earth system models that seamlessly integrate land,ocean,atmosphere,and human interactions.These advancements are vital for supporting sustainable development and providing a robust scientific foundation to address and anticipate global changes.

关 键 词：地球系统模式 发展历程 研究进展 不足与挑战 陆-海-气-人耦合 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]