Roles of the Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the Sub-Seasonal Prediction of the Long-Lasting Compound Heatwave over Southern China in 2010  

作　　者：WANG Kai-qi ZHANG Tuan-tuan YANG Song LIN Wen-shi WANG Wei-wei WANG Teng ZHANG Cheng-yang DONG Shao-rou 王开棋;张团团;杨崧;林文实;王伟伟;王腾;张成扬;董少柔

机构地区：[1]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),and School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519082 China [2]Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519082 China [3]Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518040 China [4]Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Severe Weather in South China,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518040 China [5]State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 518048 China [6]Climate Center,Guangxi Meteorological Service,Nanning 530022 China [7]Guangdong Climate Center,Guangzhou 519082 China

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2025年第1期30-42,共13页热带气象学报(英文版)

基　　金：Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42105015);Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515010659);Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(SML2023SP209);Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(311021001);Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(2020B1212060025)。

摘　　要：Sub-seasonal prediction of regional compound heatwaves and their predictability sources remain unclear.In this study,the underlying mechanisms for the long-lasting compound heatwave over Southern China during July 1–18,2010,and the major sources of its sub-seasonal prediction skill are identified.The results show that both the development and decay of this compound heatwave are mainly dominated by atmospheric processes(i.e.,adiabatic heating associated with anticyclonic circulation),whereas land-atmosphere coupling processes play an important role in sustaining the heatwave.A further analysis indicates that by inducing anomalous anticyclonic circulations over Southern China,the tropical intraseasonal oscillations with periods of 30–60 days and 10–30 days facilitate the occurrence and maintenance of the heatwave during its entire and second half periods,respectively.The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 shows a low skill in predicting the 2010 compound heatwave over Southern China when the lead time is longer than 2 pentads,which is largely attributed to the model’s bias in representing the intensity and phase of intra-seasonal oscillations.

关 键 词：compound heatwave intra-seasonal oscillations sub-seasonal prediction Southern China 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]