基于地质力学的断裂滑动风险评估方法  

Quantitative Evaluation Method for Risk of Fault Sliding Based on Geomechanics

作　　者：翟文宝 陈朝伟 王倩 冯枭 黄浩勇 谭鹏 杨子轩 ZHAI Wenbao;CHEN Zhaowei;WANG Qian;FENG Xiao;HUANG Haoyong;TAN Peng;YANG Zixuan(Engineering Technology Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,CNPC,Beijing 102206,China;National Engineering Research Center for Oil&Gas Drilling and Completion Technology,Beijing 102206,China;Shale Gas Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gas Field Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610056,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团工程技术研究院有限公司,北京102206 [2]油气钻完井技术国家工程研究中心,北京102206 [3]中国石油西南油气田公司页岩气研究院,四川成都610056

出　　处：《西安石油大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期74-84,共11页Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：中国石油集团前瞻性基础性科技项目“复杂油气钻完井基础理论与新技术新方法研究”(2024DJ100);中国石油集团直属院所基础研究和战略储备技术研究基金项目“页岩气井四维地质力学建模及在重复压裂中的应用”(2021DQ03-12);中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大技术现场试验项目“页岩气水平井套变防范与治理技术攻关”(2019F-31-05)

摘　　要：四川盆地长宁-威远地区页岩气井套管变形问题突出,严重影响压裂施工及后续生产作业。近年来,诱发套管变形的内、外因之间相互影响机理是套管变形防控策略有效实施的重要依据。为此,首先基于高分辨率地震资料,利用地震属性叠合方法识别潜在断裂,分析区域断裂分布特征;然后,基于断裂滑动机理,采用蒙特卡洛方法综合考虑地质、地质力学与工程等影响参数不确定性,建立基于地质力学的断裂滑动风险评估方法;最后,以宁X井区为例,利用新方法定量评估平台断裂滑动风险,绘制了宁X井区断裂滑动风险评估图,并与实际套变位置进行对比。结果表明:宁X井区断裂滑动风险评估图预测成功率为86.67%,充分证明了综合考虑地质因素、地质力学和工程因素建立的断裂滑动风险评估方法与宁X井区断裂滑动风险评估成果图的可靠性与正确性。该研究成果有助于厘清套管变形的内、外因之间相互影响机理,还可为现场开展压前断裂滑动风险评估以及针对性实施套管变形防控策略提供参考。The casing deformation problem of the shale gas wells in Changning-Weiyuan area of Sichuan Basin is prominent,which seriously affects fracturing construction and subsequent production operations.The mechanism of mutual influence between internal and external factors that induce casing deformation is an important basis for effectively implementing casing deformation prevention and control strategies.Firstly,based on high-resolution seismic data,potential faults were identified using the seismic attribute overlay method and the distribution characteristics of regional faults were analyzed.Then,based on the mechanism of fault sliding,a fault sliding risk assessment method based on geomechanics was established using the Monte Carlo method under comprehensively considering the uncertainty of geological,geomechanical,and engineering influencing parameters.Finally,taking the Ning X wellblock as an example,the risk of fault sliding was quantitatively evaluated using the new method,and a fault sliding risk assessment map was drawn for the Ning X wellblock,which was compared with the actual location of casing deformation.The results showed that the prediction success rate of the fault sliding risk assessment map is 86.67%for the Ning X wellblock,fully demonstrating the reliability and correctness of the established fault sliding risk assessment method and the fault sliding risk assessment result map for the Ning X wellblock.This research result helps clarify the mutual influence mechanism between internal and external factors of casing deformation,and can also provide reference for on-site assessment of pre-fracturing fault sliding risk and targeted implementation of casing deformation prevention and control strategies.

关 键 词：页岩气井 套管变形 断裂滑动 风险评估 水力压裂 

分 类 号：TE271[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程] P554[天文地球—构造地质学]