汛期降雨地质灾害特征与评估预警技术应用——以2023年主汛期为例  

Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Geological Hazards Triggered by Rainfall in the Flooding Season:A Case Study of the Main Flooding Season in 2023

作　　者：齐文文 许冲 侯建盛 高会然 胡杰 QI Wenwen;XU Chong;HOU Jiansheng;GAO Huiran;HU Jie(National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of People's Republic of China,Beijing 100085,China;Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards Dynamics,Ministry of Emergency Management of China,Beijing 100085,China;Department of Earthquake and Geological Disaster Rescue,Ministry of Emergency Management of People's Republic of China,Beijing 100054,China)

机构地区：[1]应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京100085 [2]复合链生自然灾害动力学应急管理部重点实验室,北京100085 [3]应急管理部地震和地质灾害救援司,北京100054

出　　处：《安全》2025年第3期10-18,共9页Safety & Security

基　　金：应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院基本科研业务专项(2023-JBKY-57)。

摘　　要：为提升汛期地质灾害的评估预警水平,本文通过分析2023年主汛期的地质灾害灾情特点与降雨时空特征,利用降雨地质灾害危险性评估机器学习模型,回溯评估全国范围的降雨地质灾害危险性。结果表明:2023年主汛期内台风影响广泛,造成我国东部、东南部多省市的月降雨量超过历史均值1~1.5倍,进而导致以上地区频发台风强降雨地质灾害链;结合“杜苏芮”台风期间京津冀地区的灾情和灾损评估发现,降雨地质灾害危险性评估结果与实际灾害情况具有较高的空间一致性,在未来的防灾工作中可采用此评估预警方法进行地质灾害风险预判,提高降雨地质灾害的提前感知和应对能力,并基于应急实践工作提出针对性建议。In order to improve early warning level of geological disasters during the flood season,this work comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of geological hazards and the spatial-temporal patterns of rainfall during the 2023 main flood season.Using the machine learning model for assessing geological hazards triggered by rainfall,this work retrospectively evaluates rainfall-triggered geological hazards on national scale.The results show that during the main flood season of 2023,typhoons cause monthly rainfall to exceed the historical average by 1~1.5 times in many regions of the eastern and southeastern China,leading to frequent typhoon heavy rainfall geological hazard chains in these regions.Based on the disaster situation and damage assessment information in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during Typhoon Doksuri,it was found that the geological hazard assessment maps have high spatial consistency with the spatial pattern of actual disaster.In future work for disaster prevention,this assessment and early warning method can be used for geological hazards risk prediction,improve the ability to perceive and respond to rainfall-triggered geological hazards in advance,and provide targeted suggestions based on emergency practice work.

关 键 词：主汛期 降雨 地质灾害 评估预警 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] P694[天文地球—地质学]