基于高斯的飞机MTBF和MTTR变化趋势研究与应用  

Research and Application of Aircraft MTBF and MTTR Variation Trend Based on Gauss

作　　者：尹宝石 潘翼 周国强 崔建国[2] YIN Baoshi;PAN Yi;ZHOU Guoqiang;CUi Jianguo(Shenyang Aircraft Design&Research Institute,Shenyang 110035,China;Shenyang Aerospace University,Shenyang 110135,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳飞机设计研究所,辽宁沈阳110035 [2]沈阳航空航天大学,辽宁沈阳110135

出　　处：《飞机设计》2024年第5期40-44,共5页Aircraft Design

基　　金：《国防科工局关于“十四五”技术基础科研计划第一批项目立项的批复》(科工技[2020]1302号)(质量与可靠性专业)

摘　　要：针对飞机典型机载系统/分系统/产品的维修信息数据量大,信息繁杂,实际工作中难以有效计算并进行变化趋势分析问题,以飞机为具体研究对象,针对其整机/机载系统/分系统/产品大量外场质量监控维修数据,设计并研究了基于高斯模型的飞机平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)和平均修复时间(MTTR)趋势分析模型。分别以单周、周累计、单月、月累计等相关维修信息为约束条件,对整机/机载系统/分系统/产品大量外场质量监控维修数据进行了归类、排错、筛选、排序、统计与分析。研究了飞机机载系统/分系统/产品平均故障间隔时间与平均修复时间的评估方法,并评估出平均故障间隔时间与平均修复时间确定了两者的置信限,构建了对应的数据集。提出了一种基于高斯模型的飞机平均故障间隔时间与平均修复时间的趋势分析模型。设计了面向飞机机载系统/分系统/产品的高斯趋势分析算法。在此基础上,采用所设计的高斯趋势分析模型对飞机平均故障间隔时间与平均修复时间变化趋势进行了测试验证。结果表明,所设计的基于高斯的趋势分析模型,能够很好描述整机/机载系统/分系统/产品的MTBF/MTTR的变化趋势与规律,验证了该方法的有效性,研究成果可直接应用于飞机外场数据处理与分析及飞机保障活动中,具有很好的应用前景与实际应用价值。Aiming at the problem that the maintenance information data of typical airborne systems∕subsystems∕products of aircraft is large and complex,which makes it difficult to effectively calculate and analyze the change trend in practi⁃cal work,this paper designs and studies a Gaussian Aircraft MTBF(Mean Time Between Failures)and MTTR(Mean Time To Repair)Trend Analysis Model.Firstly,based on weekly,weekly accumulation,monthly,monthly accumulation and other related maintenance information as constraints,a large number of field quality monitoring and maintenance data of the aircraft∕airborne sys⁃tem∕subsystem∕product were classified,error⁃sorted,screened,sorted,statistical and analyzed.Secondly,the eval⁃uation methods of MTBF and MTTR for airborne systems∕subsystems∕products are studied.The MTBF and MTTR are evaluated,and the confidence limits of MTBF and MTTR are determined.The data sets of MTBF and MTTR are constructed.Finally,a Gaussian aircraft MTBF and MTTR trend analysis model is proposed.The Gaussian MTBF and MTTR trend analysis algorithms for airborne systems∕subsystems∕products are designed.On this basis,the Gaussian trend analysis model is used to test and verify the variation trend of aircraft MTBF and MTTR.The results show that the designed Gaussian aircraft MTBF and MTTR trend analysis model can well describe the MTBF∕MTTR trend and rule of the aircraft∕airborne system∕subsystem∕product,which verifies the effectiveness of the method.The results can be directly applied to aircraft field data processing and analysis and aircraft support activities,which has a good prospect and practical application value.

关 键 词：平均故障间隔时间 平均修复时间 高斯模型 趋势分析 

分 类 号：V240.2[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] V328.5