特朗普关税政策对我国宏观政策空间影响的研究  

Study on the Impact of Trump's Tariff Policies on China's Macroeconomic Policy Space

作　　者：劳桂珍 陈思梦 Lao Guizhen;Chen Simeng(Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Branch,the People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行新疆维吾尔自治区分行

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2024年第12期37-48,共12页Financial Development Review

摘　　要：随着美国大选尘埃落定,特朗普的关税政策引发广泛关注,相较于关税1.0版本,未来新一轮关税政策的范围更广、力度更大。本文通过梳理特朗普关税政策及相关理论,分析关税对美国、中国以及其他贸易伙伴国的影响。研究得出特朗普关税政策2.0将通过直接冲击和间接冲击两方面对我国宏观政策抉择带来挑战。面对新一轮贸易摩擦带来的冲击,本文认为需要从三方面着手,确保宏观经济平稳。一是研究实施好适度宽松的货币政策和更加积极的财政政策;二是通过增加汇率弹性更加积极地应对外部冲击;三是转化经济增长模式,推动经济由外需拉动型向内需驱动型转变。With the U.S.presidential election settled,Trump's tariff policies have garnered significant attention.Compared to the initial version of tariffs,the scope and intensity of any future rounds of tariffs are expected to be broader and stronger.This paper reviews Trump's tariff policies and related theories,analyzing the impacts of tariffs on the United States,China,and other trading partner countries.The study concludes that Trump's Tariff Policy 2.0 will challenge China's macroeconomic policy choices through both direct and indirect impacts.In response to the shocks brought about by a new round of trade frictions,this paper suggests taking action in three areas to ensure macroeconomic stability.Firstly,Im⁃plementing Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policies and Proactive Fiscal Measures.Secondly,Ac⁃tively responding to external shocks by increasing exchange rate flexibility.Thirdly,Transitioning the e⁃conomic growth model from one driven by external demand to one driven by domestic demand.

关 键 词：特朗普关税 宏观政策空间 

分 类 号：F757.12[经济管理—国际贸易] F120[经济管理—产业经济]