碳中和视角下中国净碳排放量特征与国土空间优化  

Characteristics of China's Net Carbon Emissions from the Perspective of Carbon Neutrality Optimization of National Land Space

作　　者：宓科娜 张朝阳 王佳乐 MI Kena;ZHANG Chaoyang;WANG Jiale(College of International Economics&Trade,Ningbo University of Finance&Economics,Ningbo 315175,Zhejiang,China;Ningbo Philosophy and Social Science Key Research Base"Research Base on Digital Economy Innovation and Linkage with Hub Free Trade Zones",Ningbo 315175,Zhejiang,China;School of Business,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波财经学院国际经济贸易学院,浙江宁波315175 [2]宁波市哲学与社会科学重点研究基地“数字经济创新与枢纽自贸区联动研究基地”,浙江宁波315175 [3]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2025年第1期40-51,共12页Energy Research and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(22CJY070)。

摘　　要：为应对全球气候变化,中国向世界做出了实现“碳达峰,碳中和”的庄重承诺,这也是高质量发展的必然选择。国土空间作为碳排放和碳汇的主要空间载体,是减少碳排放和增强碳汇能力的重要抓手。计算各省碳排放、碳吸收、净碳排放量相关数据,结合碳排放经济贡献率、碳吸收生态承载系数、波士顿矩阵及国家主体功能区规划进行分析。并根据主体功能区规划,以碳中和为目标分区空间,并提出相应功能定位以及低碳优化发展建议。结果表明:2001—2020年,1)从碳排放来看,全国及四大地区均呈逐年增长趋势,其中东部和中部地区的碳排放量增长速度最快。2)从碳吸收来看,全国及四大地区呈波动上升趋势,但总体涨幅较小,仍具有一定发展潜力;林地的碳吸收贡献最大,而草地则呈现下降趋势。3)碳排放和碳吸收均表现出显著的时空异质性。4)中国的净碳排放量在总体上呈西北—东南的走向,由于碳排放量在体量和增长幅度上远大于碳吸收量,净碳排放量也呈现出上升趋势;全国及四大地区仍保持上升趋势,“碳中和”任务任重道远。5)得到6个分区:低碳发展-农产品主产区、碳强度控制-重点生态功能区、碳强度控制-优先开发区、碳汇功能-重点生态功能区、高碳优化-优化开发区、高碳优化-重点开发区。In response to global climate change,China has made a solemn commitment to the world to achieve"carbon peak and carbon neutrality",which is also an inevitable choice for high-quality development.As the main spatial carrier of carbon emissions and carbon sinks,national land space is an important lever for reducing carbon emissions and enhancing carbon sink capacity.This article organizes and calculates relevant data on carbon emissions,carbon absorption,and carbon neutrality in various provinces of China.It combines the economic contribution rate of carbon emissions,ecological carrying coefficient of carbon absorption,and Boston matrix,and analyzes them in conjunction with the national main functional area planning.According to the main functional area planning,the space is divided with the goal of carbon neutrality,and corresponding functional positioning and low-carbon optimization development suggestions are proposed.The results shown that,from 2001 to 2020,1)The carbon emissions of China and its four major regions showed an annual growth trend,with the eastern and central regions having the fastest growth rate of carbon emissions.2)The overall carbon absorption of China and its four major regions showed a fluctuating upward trend,but the overall increase was relatively small and still has certain development potential.Forest land contributes the most to carbon absorption,while grassland shows a downward trend.3)Both carbon emissions and carbon absorption exhibit significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity.4)The carbon neutrality in China generally follows a northwest southeast trend,and due to the fact that carbon emissions are much larger in volume and growth than carbon absorption,the carbon neutrality during the research period also showed an upward trend.China and the four major regions still maintain an upward trend,and the task of"carbon neutrality"is a long and arduous task.5)Obtained 6 zones:Low carbon development-main agricultural product production area,carbon intensity control-key ecological function a

关 键 词：碳中和 碳排放 碳吸收 国土空间 土地利用 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]