“双碳”目标下长江经济带碳排放时空演变特征及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the"Dual Carbon"Goals

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作  者:万珍 陈华脉 周建设[1] WAN Zhen;CHEN Huamai;ZHOU Jianshe(School of Economics and Management,Nanchang Hangkong University,Nanchang 330063,China)

机构地区:[1]南昌航空大学经济管理学院,南昌330063

出  处:《能源研究与管理》2025年第1期81-90,共10页Energy Research and Management

基  金:2023年度江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目“‘双碳’目标下长江经济带碳排放的时空演变特征及驱动因素研究”(JJ23222);南昌航空大学博士科研启动金项目“空间分异与空间溢出视角下环境规制对工业污染排放的影响机理与效应研究”(EA202309224)。

摘  要:长江经济带作为中央重点实施的“三大战略”之一,肩负着率先实现“双碳”目标的重大使命,亟待揭示其碳排放的时空演变特征及驱动因素。基于2007—2021年夜间灯光数据与省级能源消费统计碳排放数据,反演长江经济带各地级市能源消费碳排放量。并采用空间自相关、冷热点分析、空间滞后模型及地理探测器等方法,深入分析长江经济带碳排放的时空演变规律及其驱动因素。结果表明:1)2007—2021年长江经济带的碳排放量明显增加。中高以上碳排放区主要分布在以上海为核心的沿海地带、湖南环长株潭城市群为主的中游城市带以及黔中经济区。2)长江经济带城市间的碳排放存在显著的空间正相关关系,形成了高低值聚集的空间集聚格局。3)经济发展水平和人口规模是碳排放持续增加的主要推动力,其中经济发展水平和产业结构的交互作用对碳排放的空间分异起主导作用。长江经济带在2035年碳达峰的趋势向好,得益于产业结构优化、能源转型加速和绿色技术创新应用,但仍需应对人口增长、城市化进程和部分城市减排任务艰巨等挑战。The Yangtze River Economic Belt,as one of the"Three Major Strategies"implemented by the central government,bears the significant mission of taking the lead in achieving the"dual carbon"targets,and there is an urgent need to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of its carbon emissions.This study inverts the carbon emissions from energy consumption at the prefecture-level cities within the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on nighttime light data and provincial-level energy consumption statistics on carbon emissions from 2007 to 2021.Furthermore,spatial autocorrela-tion,hot and cold spot analysis,the Spatial Lag Model,and the Geodetector were employed to conduct an in-depth analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving factors of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The research findings indicate that:1)Carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have significantly worsened from 2007 to 2021.Regions with medium-to-high carbon emissions are mainly distributed along the coastal belt centered on Shanghai,the midstream urban agglomeration centered on the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city cluster in Hunan,and the Central Guizhou Economic Zone.2)There exists a significant spatial positive correlation in carbon emissions among cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,forming a spatial agglomeration pattern with high and low values clustered together.3)GDP and population size are the primary drivers of the continuous increase in carbon emissions,while the interaction between economic development level and industrial structure plays a dominant role in the spatial differentiation of carbon emissions.The Yangtze River Economic Belt has a positive trend of reaching its carbon peak by 2035,thanks to the optimization of industrial structure,acceleration of energy transformation and application of green technology innovation.However,it still needs to cope with challenges such as population growth,urbanization and arduous emission reduction tasks in some citie

关 键 词:夜间灯光数据 碳排放 时空格局 驱动因素 长江经济带 

分 类 号:TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]

 

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