贵州省土地利用碳排放时空演变特征及驱动因素  

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Land Use Carbon Emissions in Guizhou Province

作　　者：周红韵 韩会庆 赵云梅 简元菊 ZHOU Hongyun;HAN Huiqing;ZHAO Yunmei;JIAN Yuanju(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Guizhou Institute of Technology,Guiyang 550003,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州理工学院建筑与城市规划学院,贵阳550003

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2025年第1期107-114,150,共9页Energy Research and Management

基　　金：贵州省教育厅高校人文社会科学研究项目“贵州稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和的对策建议研究”(2024RW314)。

摘　　要：为优化土地利用规划,促进产业结构调整,制定科学减碳目标,推动区域可持续发展。以遥感影像和经济社会数据为基础,运用碳排放估算模型和时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型对贵州省各市(州)2010年、2015年、2020年的土地利用碳排放量进行估算,全面深入探讨贵州全省范围内的土地利用与碳排放之间的时空分布特征,并进一步探究其影响因素的时空异质性。结果表明:1)2010年、2015年、2020年3个年份贵州省的净碳排放量呈逐渐减小趋势,2020年贵州省净碳排放量为2010年的近1/2,其中农业机械生产使用与灌溉过程所产生的碳排放量占贵州省碳排放的60%,为主要碳源。另外,贵州省建设用地碳排放量呈增加趋势,贵州省各市(州)的碳排放量差异显著且呈下降趋势。2)城市化水平、产业结构、人口聚集程度、技术水平、建设用地占比回归系数呈正负走势且数值差异显著,表明产业结构、人口聚集程度对碳排放增长有明显促进效应,人口聚集程度为首要贡献因素;城市化水平、技术水平和建设用地占比对碳排放减少有明显促进作用,城市化水平为首要贡献因素。3)碳排放影响因素空间异质性显著,毕节等市城市化对碳排放贡献突出。规划碳减排策略应因地制宜,受技术水平影响大的城市应采用绿色技术、发展低碳能源并调整工业结构,随着城市化推进和人口密度降低,城市化和人口聚集对碳排放影响减弱,产业结构等对碳排放驱动作用呈波动变化。To optimize land use planning,promote industrial structure adjustment,set scientific carbon reduction targets,and drive regional sustainable development,this study estimated the land use carbon emissions of each city(prefecture)in Guizhou province in 2010,2015,and 2020 based on remote sensing images and socio-economic data,using carbon emission estimation models and spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression(GTWR)models.It comprehensively and deeply explored the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of land use and carbon emissions throughout Guizhou province and further investigated the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors.The results show that:1)The net carbon emissions of Guizhou province in 2010,2015,and 2020 showed a gradually decreasing trend.In 2020,the net carbon emissions of Guizhou province were half of those in 2010.Among them,the carbon emissions from agricultural machinery production and use and irrigation processes accounted for 60%of the carbon emissions in Guizhou province,being the main carbon source.On the other hand,the carbon emissions from construction land in Guizhou province showed an increasing trend,and the carbon emissions of each city(prefecture)in Guizhou province were significantly different and showed a decreasing trend.2)The regression coefficients of urbanization level,industrial structure,population concentration,technological level,and construction land proportion showed positive and negative trends with significant numerical differences,indicating that industrial structure and population concentration had a significant promoting effect on carbon emissions growth,with population concentration being the primary contributing factor;urbanization level,technological level,and construction land proportion had a significant promoting effect on carbon emission reduction,with urbanization level being the primary contributing factor.3)The spatial heterogeneity of carbon emission influencing factors was significant,and the contribution of urbanization to

关 键 词：土地利用 碳排放 时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型 驱动因素 贵州省 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理] F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]