中国制造业发展质量时空分异及对策研究  

Research on the spatiotemporal differentiation and countermeasures of the development quality of China's manufacturing industry

作　　者：刘明 朱威伟 LIU Ming;ZHU Weiwei(Key Laboratory of Digital Economy and Social Computing Science of Gansu,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China;School of Statistics and Data Science,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学甘肃省数字经济与社会计算科学重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]兰州财经大学统计与数据科学学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《长安大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期108-132,共25页Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BTJ006);甘肃省科技重大专项计划(24ZDWA007)。

摘　　要：为探究中国制造业发展质量的时空分异水平和影响因素等问题,利用2011—2020年中国30个省份制造业相关数据测度制造业高质量发展水平。借助核密度估计、马尔科夫链、Dagum基尼系数、β收敛模型探析制造业发展质量的时空演进规律特征、区域差异、时空收敛性。研究发现,中国制造业发展质量整体呈现上升趋势,但是各维度呈现不同的特征;制造业发展质量空间差异明显、空间效应显著,存在区域转移趋势和时空收敛状态;造成制造业发展质量时空差异的原因包括要素禀赋、区位条件、发展历史、生产要素、供应链效率、市场条件和政府政策等因素。研究表明,要发挥制造业发展质量较高区域的示范作用和带动作用,促进制造业均衡协调发展;充分挖掘制造业发展质量较低区域的后发优势,形成对高质量发展区域的追赶效应;加大研发投入,培养高技术人才,突破制造业高质量发展瓶颈;积极拓展国内国际两个市场,强化制造业发展风险管控能力;加大环境保护力度,严惩环境破坏行为,严守环境保护底线,推进制造业绿色可持续发展。To explore the spatiotemporal differentiation level and influencing factors of the development quality of China's manufacturing industry,data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 were used to measure the high-quality development level of the manufacturing sector.Using kernel density estimation,Markov chain,Dagum Gini coefficient,and β convergence model,this study examines the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution,regional differences,and spatiotemporal convergence of the manufacturing industry's development quality.The findings reveal an overall upward trend in the development quality of China's manufacturing industry,with distinct characteristics in each dimension.Significant spatial differences are evident,along with a notable spatial effect,regional transfer trends,and a spatiotemporal convergence state.The spatiotemporal differences in development quality of China's manufacturing industry can be attributed to factors such as endowments,location conditions,development history,production factors,supply chain efficiency,market conditions,and government policies.This study highlights the need to leverage the demonstration and driving roles of regions with higher manufacturing development quality to promote balanced and coordinated industry development.It also emphasizes tapping into the latecomer advantages of regions with lower development quality to create a catch-up effect with regions with higher development quality,increasing R&D investment,cultivating high-tech talent,and overcoming bottlenecks in high-quality development.Furthermore,it stresses the importance of expanding both domestic and international markets,enhancing risk control capabilities in manufacturing development,boosting environmental protection efforts,punishing behaviors of environmental damage,adhering strictly to environmental protection standards,and promoting the green and sustainable development of the manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：制造业 时空分异 核密度估计 马尔科夫链 Dagum基尼系数 Β收敛 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]