极端天气对风电开发全过程的影响及应对策略  

The Impact of Extreme Weather on the Entire Process of Wind Power Development and Response Strategies

作　　者：孟丹 陈正洪 许杨 曾鹏 王明 崔杨 许沛华 MENG Dan;CHEN Zhenghong;XU Yang;ZENG Peng;WANG Ming;CUI Yang;XU Peihua(Hubei Provincial Meteorological Service Center,Wuhan 430205,Hubei,China;Hubei Provincial Meteorological Energy Technology Development Center,Wuhan 430205,Hubei,China;Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Lightning Protection Center,Nanning 530022,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省气象服务中心,湖北武汉430205 [2]湖北省气象能源技术开发中心,湖北武汉430205 [3]广西壮族自治区防雷中心,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《南方能源建设》2025年第2期1-14,共14页Southern Energy Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于爬坡特征识别和深度学习的复杂地形和气候条件下的风电功率预报方法研究”(42205196);中国气象局软科学研究项目“‘双碳’背景下能源气象服务供给侧结构性改革与实现路径研究”(2023ZDXM03);中国气象局科技项目“能源保供气象服务关键技术及产品研发”(CMAJBGS202323);湖北省自然科学基金项目“基于卫星雷达资料和中小尺度模式的风光资源降尺度方法研究”(2023AFB543);湖北省气象局科技基金项目“湖北省大气边界层风能资源特性分析及开发潜力评估”(2023Y08)。

摘　　要：[目的]碳中和、碳达峰系列政策的实施,推动了风电这一清洁能源的快速发展。近年来,极端天气气候事件频发,随着风电大规模投产并网,极端天气导致的风电场气象灾害问题愈加凸显。极端天气不仅给风电开发带来了严峻挑战,还可能对电网稳定性和供电可靠性造成影响,因此,需要深入了解极端天气对风电开发的影响机理,采取有效预防和应对措施,确保风电行业健康安全发展。[方法]通过梳理近期发表的风电气象灾害相关文献,文章将影响风电开发的高影响天气分成了极端天气和不良天气2大类,归纳总结了台风、大风、雷电、暴雨、沙尘暴、低温冰冻、高温等极端天气以及小静风、盐雾、海雾等不良天气在风电场规划设计、施工建设、生产运营阶段对风电场规划立项、资源评估、勘察设计、装机建设、基建设施、风电出力和风电功率预测等方面的影响。[结果]规划设计阶段,需识别并评估极端天气风险,进行科学的宏观和微观选址选型;施工建设阶段,暴雨、低温冰冻等影响运输延误工期,大风、暴雨等影响吊装引发作业风险,海雾、雷电等影响海上风电施工安全;生产运营阶段,极端天气易导致风电场大规模停机和出力损失,甚至可能威胁电网安全稳定运行。除了一定强度的热带气旋外,其他高影响天气均不利于风电出力。频发的极端天气过程导致风电功率预报准确率降低。[结论]最后,提出了应对高影响天气的措施,包括加强应急管理和极端天气的监测预警,考虑极端天气对风电功率预测的影响,加强储能系统建设等。[Objective]The implementation of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking policies has promoted the rapid development of wind power,a clean energy source.In recent years,extreme weather and climate events occur frequently,and with the large-scale production and grid connection of wind power,the issue of meteorological disasters in wind farms caused by extreme weather has become more prominent.Extreme weather not only poses severe challenges to wind power development,but may also affect the grid stability and reliability of power supply.Therefore,it is necessary to deeply understand the mechanism of how extreme weather affects wind power development,and take effective prevention and response measures to ensure the healthy and safe development of the wind power industry.[Method]By reviewing the recently published literature on meteorological disasters in wind farms,the paper classified the high-impact weather affecting wind power development into two major categories:extreme weather and adverse weather.It summarized the impacts of extreme weather such as typhoon,strong wind,lightning,rainstorm,sandstorm,cryogenic freezing and high temperature,as well as adverse weather such as calm breeze wind,salt spray and sea fog,on wind farm planning,resource assessment,survey and design,installation construction,infrastructure,wind power output and wind power prediction during the planning and design,construction and operation stage of wind farm.[Result]In the planning and design stage,it is necessary to identify and assess the risks of extreme weather,and carry out scientific macro and micro site selection.In the construction stage,rainstorm,cryogenic freezing and so on can affect transportation and delay the construction period;strong winds,heavy rain and so on affect hoisting and cause operational risks;sea fog,lightning and so on may affect the safety of offshore wind power construction.In the production and operation stage,extreme weather can lead to large-scale shutdown of wind farms and loss of output,and even threaten the

关 键 词：风电场 极端天气 风电出力 功率预报 影响 

分 类 号：TK89[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]