极端寒潮天气过程风机凝冰受限容量分析  

Analysis of the Limited Capacity of Wind Turbine Icing in Extreme Cold Wave Weather Process

作　　者：蓝浩宸 卢炳夫 李仲怡 黄丹 李勇 赵金彪 LAN Haochen;LU Bingfu;LI Zhongyi;HUANG Dan;LI Yong;ZHAO Jinbiao(Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530000,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象灾害防御技术中心,广西南宁530000

出　　处：《南方能源建设》2025年第2期26-35,共10页Southern Energy Construction

基　　金：广西壮族自治区气象局资助项目“新能源气温降尺度精细化预报研究”(桂气科2023QN07);广西气象科研计划项目“柳江流域水库径流量预报模型开发及服务系统建设”(桂气科2023ZL09);广西气象科研计划项目“微地形环境下风电场雷电活动特征分析及风险评估”(桂气科2024QN13);广西气象科研计划项目“高影响天气下的光伏发电功率预测”(桂气科2024ZL06)。

摘　　要：[目的]针对寒潮天气下风机凝冰容量受限预测困难,造成风功率预测不准、风电调度决策依据不足等问题。[方法]通过风机凝冰受限容量预测模型,利用常规气象观测资料、风机停机实况数据及数值模式等资料对广西一次极端寒潮天气过程下风机凝冰受限容量进行分析总结。[结果]结果表明:通过融合数值预报产品与凝冰受限容量的实况数据,并应用回归分析进行实时订正,有效提升了凝冰预测的参考价值和准确性。此外,凝冰预测模型能够对较强冷空气系统南下影响广西风电场做出有效反应,但对转折性天气反应不足,预测结果比实况偏大。同时,数值模式预报结果存在幅值偏差和相位偏差,在本次过程中预测值偏大于实况。在预测效果上,模型在气温预测方面表现优于相对湿度和风速,且高海拔地区气象要素预测效果普遍好于低海拔地区。[结论]基于上述结论,提出了加强寒潮预警预测能力、开展凝冰容量预测系统升级改造工作等建议,以提高极端寒潮天气下风机凝冰预测受限容量的准确率。[Objective]The analysis of limited icing capacity of wind turbine in cold wave weather is difficult to predict,resulting in inaccurate wind power prediction and insufficient decision-making basis for wind power dispatching.[Method]Through the prediction model of the limited icing capacity of wind turbine,the limited icing capacity of wind turbine in extreme cold wave weather process in Guangxi was analyzed and summarized by using conventional meteorological observation data,wind turbine shutdown actual data and numerical model data.[Result]The results show that the reference value and accuracy of icing prediction are effectively improved by integrating the numerical prediction products with the actual data of limited icing capacity and applying regression analysis for real-time correction.In addition,the icing prediction model can effectively respond to the strong cold air system southward affecting the Guangxi wind farm,but the response to the turning weather is insufficient,and the prediction result is larger than the actual data.At the same time,the numerical model prediction results have amplitude deviation and phase deviation,and the predicted value is larger than the actual value in this process.In terms of prediction effect,the model performs better in air temperature prediction than relative humidity and wind speed prediction,and the prediction effect of meteorological elements in high altitude areas is generally better than that in low altitude areas.[Conclusion]Based on the above conclusions,some suggestions are put forward,such as strengthening the early warning and prediction ability of cold wave,carrying out the upgrading and transformation of icing capacity prediction system,so as to improve the prediction accuracy of the limited icing capacity of wind turbine in extreme cold wave weather.

关 键 词：极端寒潮 风机凝冰 凝冰受限容量 预测模型 风电 

分 类 号：TK89[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]