我国社会用电量对气温变化的响应及其时空差异  

The Response of Social Electricity Consumption on Temperature Changes and Its Temporal and Spatial Variations in China

作　　者：许畅 陈正洪 刘军 XU Chang;CHEN Zhenghong;LIU Jun(Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan 430205,Hubei,China;Hubei Meteorological Service Center,Wuhan 430205,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院,湖北武汉430205 [2]湖北省气象服务中心,湖北武汉430205

出　　处：《南方能源建设》2025年第2期36-47,共12页Southern Energy Construction

基　　金：中国气象局“揭榜挂帅”科技项目“能源保供气象服务关键技术及产品研发”(CMAJBGS202323);中国气象局气候变化专项“极端冷热天气影响能源系统供需安全研究”(QBZ202409);云南省气象局“揭榜挂帅”科技项目“楚雄州电网精细化气象预报预警服务研究”(YNJBGS202309)。

摘　　要：[目的]为揭示我国各地用电量受气温变化影响的方式、程度及其差异。[方法]搜集我国29个省区市2008-2020年逐月全社会用电量及同期平均气温,计算各省逐月的气象电量和相对气象电量及与同期气温的趋势系数及相关系数,绘制相关参数的全国分布图,并分析其空间差异及可能成因。[结果]结果表明:(1)夏季气温升高,气象电量呈现增加的趋势,其中东部地区及重庆、陕西呈现极显著的关系,而西部和北部地区(如新疆维吾尔自治区、青海、甘肃和黑龙江)则不显著。其中极显著地区相对气象电量趋势系数差异也很大,东北3省平均趋势系数为1.5%/℃,华中和除福建以外的华东均达到5%/℃,广西、重庆和陕西的平均值在3%/℃;(2)冬季气温变化与我国各地用电量也具有一定的关系,冬季温度降低时,用电量呈现增加的趋势,而且我国大部分区域除南部沿海地区及贵州外都呈现显著的关系,其中东北、华北向西南地区一线达到极显著的关系,相对气象电量趋势系数从-2.0%/℃到-7.5%/℃;(3)空间相关性表明,夏季气象电量、相对气象电量趋势系数与气温显著正相关,气温每升高1℃,气象电量、相对气象电量均呈显著增加,而冬季为弱的负相关。[结论]研究结果对能源需求预测、能源保供、应对气候变化及实现“双碳”目标具有重要的参考价值。[Objective]The purpose is to reveal the ways,extents and differences in how electricity consumption across various regions in China is influenced by temperature changes.[Method]Data on monthly total social electricity consumption and corresponding average temperatures for 29 provinces municipalities and autonomous regions from 2008 to 2020 were collected.Monthly meteorological electricity consumption and relative meteorological electricity consumption were calculated for each province,along with trend coefficients and correlation coefficients with concurrent temperatures.National distribution maps of these parameters were drawn,and their spatial differences and possible causes were analyzed.[Result]The results show that:(1)With rising summer temperatures,meteorological electricity consumption shows an increasing trend,especially significant in the eastern regions,Chongqing,and Shaanxi,while it is not significant in western and northern regions(such as Xinjiang,Qinghai,Gansu and Heilongjiang).The trend coefficients of relative meteorological electricity consumption also vary significantly among regions with a significant relationship,with an average trend coefficient of 1.5%/℃in the three northeastern provinces,reaching 5%/℃in Central China and Eastern China(excluding Fujian),and about 3%/℃in Guangxi,Chongqing and Shaanxi.(2)Winter temperature changes also have a certain relationship with electricity consumption in various regions of China.When winter temperatures decrease,electricity consumption shows an increasing trend,and a significant relationship is observed in most areas of China,except for the southern coastal regions and Guizhou,with an extremely significant relationship extending from the northeast and north China to the southwest region.The trend coefficients of relative meteorological electricity consumption range from−2.0%/℃to−7.5%/℃.(3)Spatial correlation analysis shows that summer meteorological electricity consumption and the trend coefficients of relative meteorological electricity c

关 键 词：社会用电量 气象电量 相对气象电量 气温 相关性 趋势性 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]