电力现货市场下中长期合约价值分析及定价建议  

Value Analysis and Pricing Recommendations for Medium-and Long-Term Contracts in the Electricity Spot Market

作　　者：刘艺锋 李玉婷 彭欣然 卢斌 LIU Yifeng;LI Yuting;PENG Xinran;LU Bin(China Energy Engineering Group Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510663,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国能源建设集团广东省电力设计研究院有限公司,广东广州510663

出　　处：《南方能源建设》2025年第2期169-180,共12页Southern Energy Construction

摘　　要：[目的]在全国电力市场化改革稳步推进的态势下,广东、山西等区域电力现货市场已步入正式运行阶段。电力现货市场价格波动频繁且难以准确预测,对发电企业年度收入构成显著影响。文章旨在深入分析中长期合约的实际价值,为中长期合约电力交易提供科学合理的定价依据,进而降低发电企业(尤其是新能源发电企业)签订中长期合约的市场风险,提高其发电收入。[方法]文章选取广东电力现货市场作为研究案例,深入剖析当前阶段的阻塞费用分配机制以及中长期合约中的阻塞费用结算方式。基于历史数据,对实行单独结算中长期阻塞费用的中长期合约进行价值评估分析。此外,对于拥有基数电量的新能源发电机组,文章还对其在当前基数电量条件下中长期合约的实际价值进行定量分析,从而为中长期合约定价提供依据及建议。[结果]在中长期阻塞费用单独结算的框架下,常规发电机组中长期合约价值主要取决于日前统一结算点电价;而对于新能源发电机组,由于基数电量等因素的影响,其中长期合约价值还与所在节点电价以及新能源自身出力特性密切相关。[结论]文章总结出适用于常规发电机组和新能源发电机组在中长期阻塞费用单独结算下的中长期合约价值公式,据此提出中长期合约定价建议。为发电侧(尤其是新能源发电机组)提供了中长期合约估值及定价思路同时,也为交易规则制定者对后续完善阻塞管理机制提供重要依据。[Objective]With the steady advancement of nationwide electricity market reforms,regions like Guangdong and Shanxi have entered the formal operation phase of electricity spot markets.The frequent and unpredictable price fluctuation in the electricity spot market has significantly impacts or the annual revenue of power generation enterprises.This paper aims to deeply analyze the actual value of medium-and long-term contracts,provide scientific and reasonable pricing basis for electricity trading in these contracts,and thus reduce the market risks for power generation enterprises(especially new energy power generation enterprises)signing medium-and long-term contracts,while increasing their power generation income.[Method]This paper selected the Guangdong electricity spot market as a case study,thoroughly analyzing the current stage's congestion cost allocation mechanism and the settlement method of congestion costs in medium-and long-term contracts.Based on historical data,the paper conducted a value evaluation analysis of mediumand long-term contracts implementing separate settlement of medium-and long-term congestion costs.Additionally,for new energy power generation units with base electricity,the paper quantitatively analyzed the actual value of medium-and long-term contracts under current base electricity conditions,providing a basis and suggestions for the pricing of medium-and long-term contracts.[Result]Under the framework of separate settlement of medium-and long-term congestion costs,the value of medium-and long-term contracts for conventional power generation units mainly depends on the day-ahead unified settlement point price.For new energy power generation units,due to the influence of base electricity and other factors,the value of medium-and long-term contracts is also closely related to the node price and the output characteristics of the new energy.[Conclusion]The paper summarizes the value formulas for medium-and long-term contracts applicable to both conventional and new energy power generation u

关 键 词：中长期合约 阻塞费用 电力现货市场 估值分析 合约定价 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]