基于弹目交会机理的高炮着发射击毁伤概率计算  

Calculation of destruction probability for anti-aircraft gun burst firing based on the mechanism of projectile-target engagement

作　　者：谢姜琪 姚志军 王军[1] 唐旭 张贤椿[1] XIE Jiangqi;YAO Zhijun;WANG Jun;TANG Xu;ZHANG Xianchun(School of Automation,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China;Unit 63850 of PLA,Baicheng 137001,China;Northwest Institute of Mechanical&Electrical Engineering,Xianyang 712099,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏南京210094 [2]中国人民解放军63850部队,吉林白城137001 [3]西北机电工程研究所,陕西咸阳712099

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2025年第2期102-107,共6页Command Control & Simulation

摘　　要：传统的高炮着发射击毁伤概率计算模型使用毁伤平均命中数的计算方式,模糊了射击诸元、弹目距离和命中情况等要素的差异性,在强调精确毁伤的需求下,该模型已经不再适应。基于弹目交会碰撞毁伤机理,研究精确毁伤概率计算模型。从命中的定义出发,建立基于弹丸投影方式的命中模型,再依据命中情况基于碰撞毁伤机理计算命中毁伤概率。借助外弹道,仿真模拟点射过程,采用蒙特卡罗方式计算仿真统计平均值。仿真结果表明,新方法能更准确地展现高炮武器系统对目标的实际毁伤情况。The traditional model for calculating the destruction probability of anti-aircraft gun burst firing uses the method of calculating the average number of hits required for destruction,which obscures the differences in elements such as firing elements,projectile-target range,and hit conditions.With the demand for precise destruction,this model is no longer suitable.In this paper,a precise destruction probability calculation model is studied based on the collision and destruction mechanism of projectile-target engagement.Starting from the definition of a hit,a hit model based on the projection method of the projectile is established,and then the destruction probability upon hit is calculated based on the collision and destruction mechanism.With the aid of external ballistics,the burst firing process is simulated.Finally,the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the average value of the simulation statistics.The simulation results show that the calculation method in this paper can more accurately reflect the actual destruction situation of the anti-aircraft gun weapon system against the target.

关 键 词：着发射击 毁伤概率 弹投影 碰撞毁伤 外弹道 蒙特卡罗法 

分 类 号：E924.5[军事—军事装备学]