粮食主产区农业生态效率时空特征、驱动因素及提升路径  

Spatiotemporal characteristics,driving factors,and improvement paths of agricultural ecological efficiency in the main grain producing areas of China

作　　者：林利平[1] 张悟移[1] LIN Liping;ZHANG Wuyi(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Technology,Kunming 650504,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,昆明650504

出　　处：《资源科学》2025年第2期402-416,共15页Resources Science

基　　金：中国工程院院地合作重点项目(2020YNZH6);昆明理工大学管理与经济学院硕博生预研计划项目(20191109007)。

摘　　要：【目的】探索粮食主产区农业生态效率驱动因素及提升路径,是引导不同地区因地制宜施策、助力农业高质量发展的基础。【方法】本文构建基于非期望产出的超效率SBM模型,测算2005—2020年粮食主产区农业生态效率,采用趋势分析方法探究其空间差异及动态演进趋势,借助地理探测器挖掘农业生态效率时空演进的驱动因素,提出提升农业生态效率的路径。【结果】(1)粮食主产区农业生态效率值呈现波动式上升态势,中高效率值区域由北向南演变,三大流域总体上呈现“长江流域—黄河流域—松花江流域”依次递减的格局;主产区农业生态效率重心主要集中在山东省域,迁移轨迹由北向南。(2)从内源性因素看,农业机械投入是粮食主产区农业生态效率差异的内在主导因素,交互效应最强的组合为农业自然资源投入与农业机械投入;从外源性因素看,经济因素对主产区农业生态效率的驱动作用最强,该因素与其他外部因素的交互效应显著增强了对农业生态效率时空演化的解释能力。(3)结合驱动因素,识别出内生驱动型、双元驱动型、资源整合型3条具有“殊途同归”意义的农业生态效率提升路径。【结论】粮食主产区农业生态效率发展整体向好,但区域差异仍然存在。为实现农业可持续化发展,需加强农业机械化、智能化普及和应用,优化农业自然资源配置,因地制宜发展特色农业。[Objective]Exploring the driving factors and improvement paths of agricultural ecological efficiency(AEE)in the main grain producing areas of China is the foundation for guiding different regions to adapt to local conditions and promoting high-quality agricultural development.[Methods]This study constructed a super-efficiency slacks-based measure(SBM)model with non-expected outputs to calculate the AEE of the main grain producing areas from 2005 to 2020,and used trend analysis methods to explore its spatial differences and trends of dynamic changes.It then used Geodetector to explore the driving factors of the spatiotemporal changes of AEE,and ways to improve AEE.[Results](1)The AEE values in the main grain producing areas showed a fluctuating upward trend,while the areas with medium and high efficiency values shifted from north to south.Overall,the three major river basins showed a trend of Yangtze River Basin>Yellow River Basin>Songhua River Basin;The center of gravity of AEE of the main grain producing areas was mainly concentrated in Shandong Province,with a migration trajectory from north to south.(2)From the perspective of endogenous factors,agricultural machinery input was the inherent dominant factor in the differences in AEE in the main grain producing areas,and the interactive combination of agricultural natural resource input and machinery input was the key driving factor;From the perspective of exogenous factors,economic factors had the strongest driving effect on AEE in the main grain producing areas,and the interaction of external factors enhanced the explanatory power to the spatiotemporal changes of AEE.(3)Based on the driving factors,we identified three paths for improving AEE:endogenous driving,dual driving,and resource integration.[Conclusion]The overall development of AEE in the main grain producing areas of China was improving,but regional differences still exist.In order to achieve sustainable agricultural development,it is necessary to strengthen the popularization and application of agricu

关 键 词：农业生态效率 驱动因素 提升路径 地理探测器 粮食主产区 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]