2024年美韩关系:回顾与展望  

US-ROK Relations in 2024: Review and Prospect

作　　者：杨帆 哈惟玉 Yang Fan;Ha Weiyu(the Regional and Country Research Center,Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies;the Institute of International Relations,China Foreign Affairs University)

机构地区：[1]当代中国与世界研究院区域国别研究中心 [2]外交学院国际关系研究所

出　　处：《当代韩国》2025年第1期40-57,共18页Contemporary Korea

基　　金：中央马工程、国家社科基金重大项目“落实全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议实践机制研究”(批准号:2024MZD027)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2024年,美韩在军事合作、科学技术、战略协调等多个领域拓展并落实合作,推动美日韩三边合作日趋制度化、阵营化,使得韩国深度融入美国的联盟体系,进一步强化了美韩全球全面战略联盟。美韩关系的变动既体现了大国战略竞争常态化背景下美韩两国的战略调整,亦是美韩对于朝鲜半岛局势和国内政治因素变动的回应。美韩联盟的强化拓展了美韩合作的领域和深度,但也加剧了朝鲜半岛紧张局势和大国博弈。展望未来,美韩联盟强化的基本趋势不会改变,但为应对特朗普政策的不确定性和联盟内部的可能分歧,韩国或将付出更大代价。与此同时,特朗普的上任还会给朝鲜半岛和地区局势带来更多不确定性。Looking back on US-ROK relations in 2024, it has expanded and implemented cooperation in military cooperation, science and technology, strategic coordination and other fields, promoted the trilateral cooperation between US and Japan to become increasingly institutionalized and aligned, made ROK deeply integrated into the US alliance system, and further strengthened the US-ROK global comprehensive strategic alliance. The changes in US-ROK relations not only reflect the strategic adjustments of US and ROK in the context of the normalization of great power rivalry, but also the response of US and ROK to the situation on the Korean Peninsula and changes in domestic political factors. The strengthening of US-ROK alliance has expanded the scope and depth of US-ROK cooperation, but it has also heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the context of great power strategic competition. Looking ahead, the trend of strengthening US-ROK alliance will not change, but ROK will have to pay more to cope with the uncertainty of Trump's policies and possible disagreements within the alliance. At the same time, Trump's inauguration will bring more uncertainty to the situation on the Korean Peninsula and in the region.

关 键 词：美韩关系 大国战略竞争 朝鲜半岛 特朗普2.0 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]