向上流动预期有助于改善农村居民身心健康吗?——基于五轮中国综合社会调查数据的经验研究  

Can Prospects of Upward Mobility Help Improve the Physical and Mental Health of Rural Residents:Empirical Study Based on Five Rounds of Chinese General Social Survey

作　　者：邓睿 冯楠淋 DENG Rui;FENG Nanlin(School of Economics,Southwest University of Political Science and Law;Research Center of Institutional Economics,Southwest University of Political Science and Law)

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学经济学院 [2]西南政法大学制度经济学研究中心

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2025年第3期122-143,共22页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“互联网介入方式对居民主观生活质量的影响研究:效应识别与机制刻画”(编号:23YJA790015);重庆市教委人文社科研究规划项目“城乡人口双向融合的历史经验、现实阻碍与助推机制研究”(编号:23SKGH012);西南政法大学招标课题“卫生安全韧性的微观福利效应研究”(编号:XYZB202208)。

摘　　要：向上流动预期不仅是城乡融合发展背景下农村居民社会流动的心理映射,也在潜移默化地影响着农村居民的身心健康。基于2013-2021年五轮中国综合社会调查数据,本文全面评估了向上流动预期对农村居民身心健康的影响。通过一系列因果识别及稳健性检验,本文研究发现,向上流动预期有助于提升农村居民的自评身体健康水平,降低农村居民心情抑郁或沮丧的发生概率,并能在一定程度上缓解健康问题对其工作或日常生活所造成的负面影响。机制检验证实,向上流动预期通过引导农村居民养成健康生活方式、激发其主动预防动机、帮助其汲取更多的心理选择资源,从而对其身心健康起到显著的促进作用。此外,向上流动预期对男性、45岁以上、家庭经济状况处在平均水平以下的农村居民的自评身体健康提升效应、心理健康改善效应和健康损耗缓释效应更加强烈。本文研究结论为从社会预期管理视角提升农村居民健康水平提供了经验证据和政策启示。The prospects of upward mobility(POUM)is not only a psychological reflection of the mobility of rural residents against the background of urban-rural integration but also affects the physical and mental health of rural residents.Based on the mixed cross-sectional data composed of the five rounds of Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)data from 2013 to 2021,this paper comprehensively evaluates the impact of POUM on rural residents'physical and mental health and possible mechanisms.The results show that POUM improves the self-rated health level of rural residents,reduces the probability of rural residents suffering from mental illness such as depression,and alleviates the negative impact of health problems on their work or daily life.This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests,such as changing the time window and direction of status cognition comparison,considering the deviation between objective intergenerational mobility and subjective mobility expectations,and conducting sensitivity analyses to determine the strength of omitted variables.To mitigate the endogeneity problem,this paper combines the instrumental variable and CMP estimation method for regression and employs the heteroskedasticity robust instrumental variable estimation method.The research conclusion is further verified multi-dimensionally confirming the positive impact of POUM on the physical and mental health of rural residents.The mechanism test results based on the KHB method indicate that POUM can significantly promote their physical and mental health by guiding rural residents to cultivate healthy lifestyles,stimulating their proactive prevention motivation,and helping them acquire more psychological choice resources.The heterogeneity analysis shows that POUM has a stronger effect on improving self-rated physical and mental health and alleviating health impairment for rural residents who are male,over 45 years old,and whose family economic conditions are below the average level.The above conclusions imply that confidence in up

关 键 词：向上流动预期 自评身体健康 心理健康 健康潜在影响 农村居民 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济] F323.89