非常规油气开发经济评价方法研究与应用  

Research and application of economic evaluation methods for unconventional oil and gas development

作　　者：胡青 张宝娟[2] 陈程[1] 张蔓 王祥 曲德斌[4] 丁艳[1] 王剑峰[1] 秦基超 姜关锋 Hu Qing;Zhang Baojuan;Chen Cheng;Zhang Man;Wang Xiang;Qu Debin;Ding Yan;Wang Jianfeng;Qin Jichao;Jiang Guanfeng(Research Institute of Exploration&Development,PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company;Research Institute of Exploration&Development,PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company;Kunlun Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.;PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development)

机构地区：[1]中国石油新疆油田公司勘探开发研究院 [2]中国石油长庆油田公司勘探开发研究院 [3]昆仑数智科技有限责任公司 [4]中国石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《中国石油勘探》2025年第1期180-192,共13页China Petroleum Exploration

基　　金：中国石油集团公司攻关性应用性科技专项“陆相页岩油规模增储与勘探开发技术研究”(2023ZZ15)。

摘　　要：目前我国石油公司正在全力推进非常规油气开发的探索与应用实践,非常规油气开发的特殊性使其经济评价有不同于常规油气经济评价的需求和任务。为此,在分析非常规油气开发特征基础上,梳理了非常规油气开发对经济评价的个性化需求,提出了非常规油气开发经济评价的任务与原则。非常规油气开发经济评价一要坚持全生命周期优化理念,突出一体化统筹管理和评价;二要建立一体化优化联动模型,通过倒逼机制推动方案优化。同时,提出了搭建快速经济评价模型和图版、全生命周期联动和对标分析以及风险分析等3类各具特点的非常规油气开发经济评价方法。在非常规项目方案优化和地质工程一体化优化设计时,建议采用搭建快速评价模型和图版的评价方法;在编制非常规项目全生命周期开发方案时,建议采用全生命周期联动和对标分析方法;对于风险较大、不确定性强的非常规项目(例如勘探阶段的项目),需要采用风险分析方法。此外,对于这3类经济评价方法,分别提出了改进和提升方向。At present,domestic oil companies are fully promoting the exploration and practice of unconventional oil and gas development.The particularity of unconventional oil and gas development determines that different needs and tasks are required for economic evaluation from conventional oil and gas.Therefore,based on the analysis of the characteristics of unconventional oil and gas development,the individual demand for its economic evaluation is summarized,and the tasks and principles of economic evaluation are put forward.First,it should adhere to the whole life cycle optimization concept and highlight the integrated management and evaluation.Second,it is necessary to establish an integrated optimization linkage model and promote development plan optimization through the backward forcing mechanism.In addition,three types of economic evaluation methods are put forward,including rapid economic evaluation model and chart,whole life cycle linkage and benchmarking analysis,and risk analysis.In the scheme optimization and geology and engineering integrated optimization design of unconventional projects,evaluation method of building a rapid evaluation model and chart is suggested.When preparing the whole life cycle development plan of unconventional projects,it is recommended to adopt the methods of whole life cycle linkage and benchmarking analysis.For unconventional projects with high risk and uncertainty(such as projects in the exploration stage),a risk analysis method is required.Furthermore,the improvement and upgrading direction are proposed for these three types of economic evaluation methods,respectively.

关 键 词：非常规 油气开发 经济评价 地质工程经济一体化 协同优化 风险分析 

分 类 号：TE92[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]