It's not Overcapacity,but a Matter of Global Imbalances  

作　　者：Kai Guo He Zhu Fei Yu Jiajia Zhang 

机构地区：[1]China Finance 40 Forum,China [2]School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China,China

出　　处：《China & World Economy》2025年第2期138-170,共33页中国与世界经济(英文版)

摘　　要：Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and major power competition,the US and several Western nations have claimed that China has significant"overcapacity"in manufacturing and have imposed various tariff and nontariff trade measures to shield domestic industries.Using data from publicly listed companies,this study conducted an industry-level analysis of investment and capacity expansion in China's manufacturing sector:We find that the growth in manufacturing investment is currently driven mainly by the"new trio"(electric vehicles,solar cells,and lithium batteries),and most enterprises have begun market-oriented clearing.However,the new trio involved in investment and capacity expansion accounts for only a small portion of China's manufacturing sector.The US narrative regarding China's overcapacity is therefore fundamentally misleading.From the perspective of major power dynamics,the essence of the overcapacity narrative lies in China-US trade imbalances,which are,in turn,a consequence of macroeconomic imbalances between the two nations.Insufficient demand in China and excess demand in the US form the underlying impetus behind the trade imbalances.

关 键 词：global imbalances industrial policy new trio OVERCAPACITY manufacturing investment 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]