碳减排政策能促进农产品出口增长吗?  

Does the Carbon Reduction Policy Promote the Growth of Agricultural Product Exports?

作　　者：刘雪梅 胡婧淑 LIU Xuemei;HU Jingshu(Alibaba Business College,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学阿里巴巴商学院,杭州310000

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第6期149-157,共9页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：农业作为对气候变化最敏感的部门之一,其生产活动深受环境恶化的负面影响,碳减排政策将不可避免地影响到农业生产及出口贸易。通过选取2000—2021年的HS四分位的农产品对碳减排政策对农产品出口的影响进行研究。研究结果表明:碳减排政策实施会促进农产品的出口增长;碳减排政策实施对粮食类、油类的出口影响较大,对肉类出口的影响稍小;劳动力、政府支农及气候变化,均对碳减排政策促进农产品出口增长中发挥了正向作用。As one of the sectors most sensitive to climate change,agricultural production activities are deeply affected by the negative impacts of environmental degradation.The implementation of“carbon peaking”and“carbon neutrality”policies will inevitably affect agricultural production methods and export trade.The impact of carbon emission reduction policies on agricultural exports was studied by selecting HS four-digit agricultural products from 2000 to 2021,using the Difference-in-Differences(DID)method for empirical analysis,and the mechanism of how carbon emission reduction policies affect agricultural export growth was explored.The research findings are as follows.The implementation of carbon emission reduction policies promotes agricultural export growth.In terms of heterogeneity,the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies has a relatively significant impact on the exports of grain and oil products,while the impact on meat exports is slightly smaller.In terms of moderating effects,labor,government support for agriculture,and climate change all play a positive role in promoting agricultural export growth through carbon emission reduction policies.Based on these conclusions,insights and suggestions are provided for the changes in China’s agricultural exports in the global agricultural market under the“dual carbon”goals.

关 键 词：碳减排政策 农产品出口 气候变化 碳达峰 碳中和 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]