基于层次分析法的城市公共安全风险评估与治理  

Urban Public Safety Risk Assessment and Governance Based on AHP

作　　者：王循庆 周航 刘昆 孙晓羽[2] 钟锦林 WANG Xunqing;ZHOU Hang;LIU Kun;SUN Xiaoyu;ZHONG Jinlin(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005,Shandong,China;School of Public Administration,Shandeng Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005,Shandong,China;Yantai Special Equipment Lnspection Institute,Yantai 265500,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院管理科学与工程学院,山东烟台264005 [2]山东工商学院公共管理学院,山东烟台264005 [3]烟台市特种设备检验研究院,山东烟台265500

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第6期340-349,共10页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72274111);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2021MG025)。

摘　　要：由于近年极端自然灾害、重大公共卫生事件频发,导致既有风险与新兴风险交织叠加,严重影响城市的公共安全。为弥补现有研究忽视非传统风险的缺陷,基于总体国家安全观视阈,构建了以传统风险与非传统风险为核心的城市“风险-抗灾能力”风险评估模型。选取青岛、南京、杭州以及东莞四个特大城市进行风险评估。结果表明:在城市经济发展能力主成分中,南京占比最高,杭州占比最低;在城市社会保障能力主成分中,杭州占比最高,东莞占比最低;在以生态安全为代表的非传统安全领域,东莞占比最高,南京占比最低;以地区生产总值等为代表的城市经济发展能力和以社会保障和就业支出额等为代表的城市社会保障能力是城市公共安全的主要抗灾因子。Recent frequent extreme natural disasters and major public health crises have intensified the convergence of traditional and emerging risks,significantly threatening urban public safety.To address the knowledge gap regarding non-traditional risks,a city-level“risk-resilience capacity”assessment framework under the holistic national security paradigm was developed.Four Chinese megacities were evaluated,such as Qingdao,Nanjing,Hangzhou and Dongguan.The results are as follows.Nanjing demonstrates superior economic development capacity,whereas Hangzhou underperforms.Hangzhou leads in social security capacity,contrasting with Dongguan’s deficiencies.Dongguan exhibits the strongest ecological resilience,while Nanjing ranks lowest.The analysis identifies GDP-driven economic capacity and social security expenditure as critical resilience determinants.

关 键 词：总体国家安全观 城市公共安全 风险评估 因子分析 风险治理 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]