老年群体重复诈骗被害的模式与成因:基于万余份样本的实证分析  

Patterns and Causes of Repeated Fraud Victimization among Elderly Population:An Empirical Analysis Based on Over 10000 Samples

作　　者：夏一巍 Xia Yiwei(School of Law,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 610000,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学法学院,成都610000

出　　处：《山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第2期76-90,共15页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：司法部法治建设与法学理论研究部级科研项目“被害人学视角下电信网络诈骗全阶段预防治理机制研究”(22SFB4013)。

摘　　要：老年群体重复诈骗被害现象日益严峻,亟待学术界和实务界的共同关注。基于2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据库、对10270份样本进行详尽的实证分析、以揭示老年群体重复诈骗被害的模式与成因的研究发现,在分布特征方面,老年群体重复诈骗被害具有显著的“聚集性”与“累积性”特征。具体而言,虽然有重复被害经历的老年人仅占全部样本的2.84%,但其遭受的诈骗事件却占据了全部诈骗事件的50.03%。不仅如此,先前被害次数每增加一次,各类诈骗被害率都会成倍增加,但边际效应逐渐减弱;在时间间隔方面,老年群体重复诈骗被害具有“临近重复效应”。统计数据显示,两次诈骗事件之间的时间间隔呈现右偏分布,且间隔越短,再次被害的风险越高,尤其对销售类诈骗最为显著。深入探究其成因发现,老年群体重复诈骗被害主要源于被害人自身稳定的易感特质,即“个体异质性”机制是解释重复诈骗被害现象的主要机制。相比之下,负面情绪等“状态依赖性”机制对重复诈骗被害的解释有限,中介效应占比约4%。基于上述发现,应坚持分级递进、迅速响应及主动干预三大核心原则,构建精准高效的老年群体重复诈骗被害防控机制。This study examines the critical issue of repeat fraud victimization among elderly population,a phenomenon gaining increasing attention due to its severe consequences and increasingly sophisticated fraudulent methods.Based on the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS),the research analyzes 10,270 respondents aged 60 and above,focusing on revealing the patterns,temporal intervals,and causal mechanisms of repeat victimization.In terms of distribution,repeat fraud victimization demonstrates notable“clustering”and“accumulative”characteristics.Although only 2.84%of respondents reported experiencing repeat fraud,this small group accounted for 50.03%of all fraud incidents,highlighting the profound impact on a vulnerable minority.Specifically,extreme repeat victims(experiencing five or more fraud incidents)comprised merely 0.43%of the sample but represented 13.26%of all fraud events.Moreover,each previous victimization experience nearly doubled the probability of subsequent fraud.However,the marginal risk effect gradually diminished with increasing incident numbers,indicating that while repeat victimization is concerning,the additional risk eventually stabilizes.Regarding temporal intervals,the study reveals a significant“proximity effect”in repeat fraud victimization.Fraud incident intervals follow a right-skewed distribution,with a median interval of seven years.Shorter intervals,particularly within five years of the initial fraud,correlate strongly with higher repeat victimization risks.Sales-related fraud exhibited the most pronounced“proximity effect,”potentially due to its reliance on direct interactions and repeated targeting,while other fraud types showed weaker associations.This finding emphasizes the time-sensitive nature of repeat victimization.Mechanistically,the research indicates that stable individual traits(vulnerabilities in lifestyle and behavioral habits)are the primary drivers of repeat fraud victimization,consistent with the“individual heterogeneity”mechanism.

关 键 词：老年群体 重复诈骗被害 临近重复效应 反诈干预 

分 类 号：D92[政治法律—法学]