理解过程追踪法的兴起与应用  

Understanding the Rise and Applications of Process Tracing

作　　者：游宇[1] YOU Yu(School of Public Policy,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学公共事务学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《岳麓公共治理》2025年第1期29-47,共19页YUELU PUBLIC GOVERNANCE

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目:突发公共事件中公众机构信任调适及其优化研究(23BZZ021)。

摘　　要：本研究系统探讨了过程追踪法在质性研究中的兴起与应用,分析其学术背景、核心概念及实践操作,揭示了这一方法在社会科学因果推断中深化机制理解与提升分析精度的独特贡献。首先,研究梳理了过程追踪法的历史发展脉络,阐明了该方法如何在方法论对话、质性研究透明化以及应对经验分析挑战的过程中,逐步发展为案例内因果推断的核心工具。其次,研究从机制分析的视角切入,深入探讨了因果机制在质性研究中的理论价值及其在具体研究中的分解与验证路径。通过引入枪口冒烟型与环箍型两种不同的证据与检验方式的分类框架,进一步阐释了不同证据类型如何通过多层次检验,共同支持因果链条的逻辑完整性。此外,研究强调,过程追踪法的实践需要关注其分析逻辑的严谨性与操作的规范性,并通过优化证据分类与检验逻辑,加强与其他研究方法的整合,以进一步提升其理论解释力和实际应用价值。研究不仅深化了对过程追踪法的理解,也为因果复杂性提供了理论指导与实践参考。This paper examines the rise and applications of process tracing in qualitative research,focusing on its academic foundation,core concepts,and methodological implementation.It highlights the unique value of process tracing in advancing causal inference within the social sciences.First,the paper traces its historical evolution into a central tool for withincase causal analysis,driven by methodological debates,efforts to enhance transparency,and responses to empirical challenges.Second,it adopts a mechanism analysis perspective,exploring the decomposition and verification of mechanisms in specific studies.By introducing a framework that distinguishes smoking gun and hoop evidence,the paper demonstrates how iterative and multi-layered evidence tests ensure the logical coherence of causal chains.The study further emphasizes the importance of adhering to internal logic and procedural rigor of process tracing,advocating for refining evidence classification and integrating the method with complementary approaches to enhancing explanatory depth and practical applicability.Ultimately,this study deepens the understanding of process tracing as a core tool for addressing causal complexity,offering valuable guidance for advancing qualitative research in social sciences.

关 键 词：过程追踪 案例内推断 因果机制 整合研究设计 

分 类 号：D035[政治法律—政治学]