广东省新能源汽车的报废及其资源潜力  

Resource Potentials from End-of-Life New Energy Vehicles in Guangdong Province

作　　者：马寅 孔文轩 刘和平 MA Yin;KONG Wenxuan;LIU Heping(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology,Maoming 525000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东石油化工学院环境科学与工程学院,广东茂名525000

出　　处：《广东石油化工学院学报》2025年第1期18-24,共7页Journal of Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology

基　　金：广东石油化工学院人才引进项目(2019rc061,2022rcyj2001);广东省石化污染过程与控制重点实验室开放基金项目(2018B030322017);茂名市科技计划项目(220414124550937,220414114550879)。

摘　　要：本研究采用动态物质流分析模型,对2010-2050年间广东省新能源汽车的报废量进行估算和预测,并在此基础上探讨了常见金属(铁、铝、铜)、稀土资源(镧、铈、镨、钕、镝)、稀贵金属(金、银、钯)及动力电池中战略性资源(镍、锂、钴)的开发潜力。结果表明,广东省新能源汽车的报废量在2050年将增长到190万辆,报废的动力电池则增长到450万组;蕴藏的常见金属将达到(240±36)万t,稀土资源将达到(5000±820)t,稀贵金属将达到(6.67±5.19)t;而且报废动力电池中还存在(20.2±9.2)万t战略性金属资源可供开发利用。本研究有助于评估广东省可持续发展与资源回收利用之间的关系,为报废新能源汽车资源的开发潜力提供数据和方法论参考,促进资源回收利用。In this study,a dynamic material flow analysis model was used to estimate and predict the generation volume of end-of-life(EoL)new energy vehicles in Guangdong Province during 2010-2050.The potential of common metals(iron,aluminum,copper),rare earth resources(lanthanum,cerium,praseodymium,neodymium,dysprosium),precious metals(gold,silver,palladium),and strategic resources(nickel,lithium,cobalt)stored in EoL new energy vehicles and batteries was also evaluated.The results indicate that by 2050,the generation of EoL new energy vehicles in Guangdong Province will reach 1.9 million units,and the number of discarded power batteries will amount to 4.5 million units.In 2050,the potential for common metals in EoL new energy vehicles will be approximately(2400±360)kilo tonnes(kt);the rare earth resources will be(5.0±0.82)kt;the precious metals will be(6.67±5.19)tonnes,and the strategic metal resources will be(202±92)kt.This study contributes to evaluating resource potentials in Guangdong Province regarding the developmental of new energy vehicles.

关 键 词：新能源汽车 动力电池 动态物质流 报废量 资源潜力 

分 类 号：X705[环境科学与工程—环境工程]