基于最可能失效时间的腐蚀加筋板安全寿命分析  

Safety Lifetime Analysis of Corrosive Stiffened Panel Based on Most Possible Failure Instant

作　　者：王昊东 王伊凡 刘炎 Wang Haodong;Wang Yifan;Liu Yan(School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学船舶与海洋工程学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《机电工程技术》2025年第5期97-102,共6页Mechanical & Electrical Engineering Technology

摘　　要：为了研究腐蚀等退化现象对于船舶结构可靠性的影响,提出了一种结合Kriging模型和最可能失效时间(MPFI)的安全寿命分析方法。提出通过样本点最可能失效时间的状态替代其在当前时间区间的状态,以简化时变可靠性计算。采用Kriging模型识别每个样本点在最可能失效时间的状态,计算结构时变失效概率,搜寻结构的安全寿命。悬臂管结构算例验证了方法的可行性,并应用于腐蚀作用下船舶加筋板结构的安全寿命分析,得到在一级延性破坏的标准下腐蚀加筋板结构的安全寿命为13年2月。相较其他安全寿命算法,调用仿真计算的次数和总计算时间分别减少了20.8%和24.1%。To analyze the influence of degradation phenomena such as corrosion on the reliability of ship structures,a safety lifetime analysis method combine with Kriging model and most possible failure instant(MPFI)is proposed.In order to simplify the time-variant reliability calculation,it is proposed the MPFI of sample,whose state is representative in the current time interval.The Kriging model was used to recognize the state of MPFI for each sample,then computed the time-dependent failure probability and searched the safety lifetime of structure.The proposed method was verified by a cantilever tube example and applied to the safety life analysis of corrosive stiffened panel structure in ship.It shows that the safety lifetime of corrosive stiffened panel structure under the standard of first order ductile failure is 13 years and two months.Compare with other algorithms,the number of simulations and the total time cost are respectively reduced by 20.8%and 24.1%.

关 键 词：最可能失效时间 KRIGING模型 腐蚀加筋板 安全寿命分析 

分 类 号：U663[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] TB332[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程] O346.2[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]