不确定来水条件下跨行业水权交易的合作博弈模型研究  

The Cooperative Game Model of Cross-industry Water Rights Trading under Uncertain Water Supply Conditions

作　　者：姜峰 徐斌[1,2] 芦璐 孟静 李江缘 李泽坤 JIANG Feng;XU Bin;LU Lu;MENG Jing;LI Jiangyuan;LI Zekun(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,Jiangsu,China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety&Hydro Science,Nanjing 210024,Jiangsu,China;Hydrological Bureau of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan,China;Urban and Rural Water Affairs Bureau of Tai'erzhuang District,Zaozhuang 277400,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210024 [2]水安全与水科学协同创新中心,江苏南京210024 [3]黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州450003 [4]台儿庄区城乡水务局,山东枣庄277400

出　　处：《水力发电》2025年第4期84-90,共7页Water Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000104);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52279010,52322902);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022001,SKS-2022013,SKS-2022124)。

摘　　要：针对政府-农业用水户-企业多主体参与下的水权交易问题,考虑来水不确定性对可交易水量、转让方效益、受让方效益等多方面的影响,以合作博弈理论为基础,构建不确定来水条件下跨行业水权交易的合作博弈模型,建立了根据来水丰枯年型可变价格、可变水量以及统一价格、统一水量的2种交易模式。以台儿庄区农业与其他行业之间跨行业水权交易为例开展研究,分析了来水年型、议价能力对水权交易价格、交易水量以及主体收益的影响。研究成果表明:考虑不同来水年型确定可变水权交易水量及价格的交易模式所得的期望收益要高于确定统一交易水量及水价的模式所得的期望收益;议价能力对水权交易价格、主体各自收益以及整体综合收益的影响显著,且受到交易水量的影响,相较于枯水年,议价能力在丰水年水权交易中发挥的作用更加明显。Focusing on the issue of water rights trading involving multiple parties such as government,agricultural water users and enterprises,this paper considers the impact of water supply uncertainty on various aspects such as tradable water volume,and the benefits of both transferor and transferee.Based on cooperative game theory,a cooperative game model of cross-industry water rights trading under uncertain water supply conditions is constructed.Two trading modes are established:variable price and variable water volume based on water supply conditions,and unified price and unified water volume.Taking the cross-industry water rights trading between agriculture and other industries in Tai'erzhuang District as an example,this paper analyzes the impact of water supply conditions and bargaining power on water rights trading price,trading volume,and benefits of transaction parties.The research results indicate that,(a)the expected benefits obtained from the trading mode that determines water rights trading volume and prices based on different water inflow years,considering water supply conditions,are higher than those obtained from the mode that determines unified trading volume and water price;and(b)bargaining power has a significant impact on the water rights trading price,the individual earnings of the parties involved,and the overall comprehensive benefits,and is also influenced by the volume of water traded.Compared to low flow years,the role of bargaining power in water rights trading is more pronounced in high flow years.

关 键 词：水权交易 来水不确定性 合作博弈 跨行业 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]