气候变化背景下青藏高原特有药用植物水母雪兔子的潜在分布区预测  

Prediction of the Potential Distribution Area of Saussurea medusa(Asteraceae),an Endemic Medicinal Plant from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under the Background of Climate Changes

作　　者：孙成林 刘玉萍[1,2,3] 苏旭[1,2,3] 李小莉 张朋辉 曲荣举 靳佳瑞 杨倩 余明君 宋昌春 SUN Cheng-lin;LIU Yu-ping;SU Xu;LI Xiao-li;ZHANG Peng-hui;QU Rong-ju;JIN Jia-rui;YANG Qian;YU Ming-jun;SONG Chang-chun(School of Life Sciences,Qinghai Normal University,Xining,Qinghai Province 810008,China;Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Formation Mechanism and Comprehensive Utilization of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in Qinghai Province,Qinghai Normal University,Xining,Qinghai Prov-ince 810008,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Qinghai Normal University,Xining,Qinghai Province 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学生命科学学院,青海西宁810008 [2]青海师范大学青海省青藏高原生物多样性形成机制与综合利用重点实验室,青海西宁810008 [3]青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《草地学报》2025年第3期910-918,共9页Acta Agrestia Sinica

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0502);青海省重大科技专项(2023-SF-A5);2023年中央林业草原生态保护恢复资金野生动植物保护项目(QHSY-2023-016);青海省省财政林业改革发展资金林草新技术推广项目(QSCZ-2023-001)资助。

摘　　要：为了明确水母雪兔子(Saussurea medusa)的潜在适宜分布区和适宜生境,本研究利用水母雪兔子的分布记录和气候变量数据,采用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件预测了不同气候变化背景下水母雪兔子的潜在分布区。结果表明,MaxEnt模型对水母雪兔子潜在分布区预测可信度高,AUC值均高于0.95;海拔、最暖季度降水量、年平均气温、降水量季节性变化是影响其潜在分布区的主要环境因子;末次间冰期、末次盛冰期和全新世中期水母雪兔子高适生区主要分布于青海东部、四川和云南西北部等地;当前和未来(2050年和2070年),高适生区主要分布于四川西北部、甘肃南部、西藏东部、青海东北部等地,分布区面积有所增加,主要向云南南部、西藏东南部等低纬度地区扩张。据此,我们认为青藏高原东南部和云南北部应是水母雪兔子的高适生区,需要建立就地保护以对国家二级珍稀野生保护植物水母雪兔子实施有效保护。In order to identify the potential suitable distribution area and habitat of Saussurea medusa,the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used in this study to predict the potential distribution area of S.medusa under different climate change backgrounds by using distribution records and climate variable data.The results showed that MaxEnt model had high reliability in predicting the potential distribution area of S.medusa,and AUC values were all higher than 0.95.Altitude,precipitation in the warmest quarter,annual mean tem⁃perature and seasonal variation of precipitation were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distri⁃bution area.The highly habitable areas of the last interglacial,last glacial maximum and middle Holocene were mainly distributed in eastern Qinghai,Sichuan and northwest Yunnan.At present and in the future(2050 and 2070),the high-suitability areas are mainly distributed in northwestern Sichuan,southern Gansu,eastern Xizang,northeast Qinghai and other places,and the distribution area will increase,mainly expanding to south⁃ern Yunnan,southeast Xizang and other low-latitude areas.Therefore,we believe that the southeast of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the north of Yunnan should be the high suitability areas of the S.medusa,and it is necessary to establish in situ protection to effectively protect the national second-class rare wild protected plant of S.medusa.

关 键 词：水母雪兔子 气候变化 潜在分布区 环境变量 最大熵模型 

分 类 号：Q948.13[生物学—植物学] Q948.112