基于AHP-DEMATEL盐城水位站项目风险评价研究  

Research on Risk Assessment of Yancheng Water Level Station Project based on AHP-DEMATEL

作　　者：陶淼 张凯奇[1] 王海波[1] 王讷敏 Tao Miao;Zhang Kaiqi;Wang Haibo;Wang Nemin(Yancheng Branch Bureau Jiangsu Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Yancheng 224008,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局盐城分局,江苏盐城224008

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2025年第3期134-138,共5页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

摘　　要：近几年,国家大力推进水文设施能力提升工程,进一步优化水文监测能力,为防汛抗旱提供有力支撑。为确保水文设施建设高质量完成,风险控制至关重要。文章以盐城水位站改造项目为例,构建5个一级风险因素与16个二级风险因素组成的风险指标体系,基于AHP-DEMATEL模型组合赋权,以模糊综合评价对项目进行风险评价,发现整体项目属于一般风险,质量管理、设计规划合理性、成本管理、施工进度管理需重点防控。In recent years,the capability improvement of hydrological facilities are vigorously promoted in China,further optimizing the hydrological monitoring capacity,so as to provide strong support for flood control and drought relief.Risk control is essential to ensure high quality completion of hydrological facilities.Taking Yancheng Water Level Station renovation project as an example,this paper constructs a risk index system composed of 5 primary risk factors and 16 secondary risk factors.Based on the combined empowerment of AHP-DEMATEL model,the risk evaluation of the project is carried out by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and it is found that the overall project belongs to general risk,and the quality management,design and planning rationality,cost management,construction schedule management needs to be prevented in priority.

关 键 词：水文设施改造 风险评价 AHP-DEMATEL 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：P336[天文地球—水文科学]