中国现代化经济体系建设水平时空演进与收敛特征研究  

Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Convergence Characteristics of China’s Modern Economic System Construction Level

作　　者：王若男 马立平[1] 慕娟 Wang Ruonan;Ma Liping;Mu Juan(School of Statistics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Customs and Public Economics,Shanghai Customs University,Shanghai 201204,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学统计学院,北京100070 [2]上海海关学院海关与公共经济学院,上海201204

出　　处：《统计与决策》2025年第6期81-85,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(20BTJ027)。

摘　　要：文章首先从多维视角分析并构建现代化经济体系建设水平评价指标体系,利用二次加权PCA-EM法测度2012—2022年中国30个省份的现代化经济体系建设水平;其次,运用Dagum基尼系数和核密度估计对其区域差异及演进趋势进行分析,基于结构视角利用方差分解法探究产生发展差异的内在因素;最后,利用空间收敛模型对其收敛性进行分析。研究表明:中国现代化经济体系建设水平两极分化较为明显,从时间上看,研究期内各省份现代化经济体系建设水平均有所提升,但增速不同。从空间上看,呈现由东向西递减的特征,同时具有较强的集聚性且大部分省份处于低水平;地区差异主要来源于区域间的发展差异,而结构上的差异主要来源于技术驱动、生产要素和产业结构的发展差异;现代化经济体系建设水平存在显著的β空间收敛性。This paper firstly analyzes and constructs the evaluation index system for the construction level of modern economic system from a multi-dimensional perspective,uses the quadratically weighted PCA-EM method to measure the construction level of the modern economic system in 30 provinces of China from 2012 to 2022,then employs the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation to analyze the regional differences and evolution trends,and finally adopts the spatial convergence model to analyze its convergence.The results are shown as below:The construction level of China’s modern economic system is more polarized.From the perspective of time,the construction level of modern economic system in each province during the study period has increased but the growth rate is different,but from the spatial point of view,it shows the characteristics of decreasing from east to west,and at the same time,it has strong agglomeration and most provinces are at a low level.Regional differences mainly come from the development differences between the regions,while structural differences mainly come from the development differences of technology-driven,production factors and industrial structure.There is significantβspatial convergence in the construction level of modern economic system.

关 键 词：现代化经济体系 Dagum基尼系数 核密度估计 时空收敛性 

分 类 号：F061.6[经济管理—政治经济学]