中国经济韧性的时空演化、区域差异及收敛特征  

Spatiotemporal Evolution,Regional Differences and Convergence Characteristics of Economic Resilience in China

作　　者：周霞[1] 王佳[1] Zhou Xia;Wang Jia(School of Urban Economics and Management,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学城市经济与管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《统计与决策》2025年第6期86-91,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：北京社会科学基金资助项目(19GLB016);北京建筑大学建大杰青项目(JDJQ20200305);北京建筑大学研究生创新项目(PG2023104)。

摘　　要：文章基于组合权重法对中国30个省份2001—2020年的经济韧性进行测度,利用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、空间收敛模型对全国、四大地区及南方和北方地区的动态演进、区域差异及收敛性进行研究。结果显示:中国经济韧性总体呈上升趋势,但增长趋缓,东北地区甚至在研究期末出现下降现象;全国经济韧性存在一定的“东部—中部—东北—西部”梯度分布特征,经济韧性的空间格局逐步由“北强南弱”演变为“南强北弱”;各区域经济韧性动态演进特征差异明显;区域内差异和区域间差异分别是南北方地区和四大地区视角下总体差异的主要来源,东部地区内部差异显著,东北与东部地区间的经济韧性差异快速扩大,仅次于东部和西部地区间的差异;除东部和中部地区外,全国及其他地区均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛。This paper is based on the combined weight method to measure the economic resilience(ER)of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2020,and then adopts the kernel density estimation,Dagum Gini coefficient and spatial convergence model to study the dynamic evolution,regional differences and convergence of the country,the four major regions,and the southern and northern regions.The results go as below:China’s economic resilience shows an overall upward trend,but the growth slows down,and the northeast region even shows a decline at the end of the study period.The national economic resilience shows a gradient distribution of“eastern region—central region—northeast region—western region”,and the spatial pattern of economic resilience has gradually evolved from“strong in the north and weak in the south”to“strong in the south and weak in the north”.There are obvious differences in the dynamic evolution characteristics of economic resilience among different regions.Intra-regional and inter-regional differences are the main sources of overall differences from the perspectives of the South and the North and the four regions,respectively.The differences within the eastern region are significant,and the differences in economic resilience between the northeast and the eastern region expand rapidly,second only to the differences between the eastern and western regions.Absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence exist in the whole country and other regions except the eastern and central regions.

关 键 词：经济韧性 指标体系 时空演化 区域差异 收敛性分析 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]