“一带一路”视域下中国出口贸易潜力测度  

Potential Measurement of China’s Export Trade From the Perspective of the Belt and Road

作　　者：朱琴琴 邹娜[1] 覃红 Zhu Qinqin;Zou Na;Qin Hong(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《统计与决策》2025年第6期126-131,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(12371261);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(23YJC910004)。

摘　　要：文章利用2014—2022年的面板数据,通过时变随机前沿引力模型对中国与134个共建“一带一路”国家的出口贸易效率及其潜力进行了深入分析,采用一步法分析了影响中国出口贸易的多重因素。研究发现:贸易伙伴国的经济规模、人口规模和外贸依存度及中国的经济规模都与中国出口贸易呈正相关关系,而双方地理距离和中国的人口规模则对出口贸易产生负向影响。成为WTO成员、签订自由贸易协定和提升贸易伙伴国政府治理能力是促进中国贸易出口的关键因素,基础设施建设不足则表现为制约因素,中国对外直接投资对出口贸易的作用并不显著。此外,中国与新加坡、韩国、智利等国家的贸易效率较高,与中非、伊拉克、利比亚等国家的贸易效率极低,与东盟地区的贸易潜力巨大。This paper utilizes the panel data from 2014 to 2022 to analyze the efficiency and potential of China’s export trade with 134 countries along the Belt and Road through a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model,and then analyzes the multiple factors affecting China’s export trade by using a one-step method.The study findings are as follows:The economic scale,population scale and foreign trade dependence of trade partner countries and China's economic scale are positively correlated with China's export trade,while the geographical distance between the two countries and China's population scale have a negative impact on export trade.Becoming a member of WTO,signing free trade agreements and improving the government governance capacity of trade partners are the key factors to promote China's trade and export,while the lack of infrastructure construction is a restricting factor.China's foreign direct investment has no significant effect on export trade.In addition,China's trade efficiency with Singapore,South Korea,Chile and other countries is high;trade efficiency with Central Africa,Iraq,Libya and other countries is very low,and trade potential with the ASEAN region is huge.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 贸易效率 贸易潜力 时变随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]