北京市某高校社区高血压风险列线图预测模型构建  

Estabilshment of a Nomogram Prediction Model for Hypertension Risk in A Certain University Community in Beijing

作　　者：陈妍[1] 陈淑珍[1] Chen Yan;Chen Shuzhen(Commiunity Health Service Center of the Eest Campus Hospital,China Agricultural University,Beijing,100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学东区社区卫生服务中心,北京100083

出　　处：《中国初级卫生保健》2025年第3期35-38,共4页Chinese Primary Health Care

摘　　要：目的:基于北京市某高校职工体检数据,建立该校社区高血压风险预测模型,控制危险因素,将高血压防治关口前移。方法:以2022年在中国农业大学东区社区卫生服务中心参加健康体检的北京市某高校职工为研究对象,对其体检结果进行统计分析,采用logistic回归分析筛选高血压危险因素,R软件建立高血压风险列线图预测模型,并应用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线、校准曲线评估模型。结果:该校2 456名职工高血压患病率为34.4%。年龄(41~60岁OR=2.589,>60岁OR=13.056)、身体质量指数升高(24.0~27.9 kg/m^(2)OR=1.508,≥28.0 kg/m^(2)OR=1.868)、腹型肥胖(OR=1.441)、高空腹血糖(≥6.1 mmol/L OR=2.097)、高尿酸血症(>420μmol/L OR=1.596)是发生高血压的危险因素。应用以上危险因素构建高血压风险列线图预测模型,ROC曲线下面积为0.814 (95%CI为0.795~0.832),校准图显示校准曲线与标准曲线贴近,提示该模型有良好的预测能力和稳定性。结论:该校职工高血压患病率高,年龄、超重、肥胖、腹型肥胖、空腹血糖升高、高尿酸血症是高血压的危险因素。OBJECTIVE Based on the physical examination data of employees in a certain university in Beijing,a hypertension risk prediction model for the campus community was established to facilitate hypertension prevention and control.METHODS The physical examination results of employees in the university in 2022 were statistically analyzed,logistic regression analysis was performed to screen hypertension risk factors,and a Nomogram prediction model was established,and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the model.RESULTS 2456 individuals were included,with the prevalence of hypertension was 34.4%.Age(41~60 years old OR=2.589,>60 years old OR=13.056),higher body mass index(BMI)(24.0~27.9 kg/m^(2) OR=1.508,≥28.0 kg/m^(2) OR=1.868),abdominal obesity(OR=1.441),high fasting blood glucose(FBG)(≥6.1 mmol/L OR=2.097),and hyperuricemia(>420μmol/L OR=1.596)were influencing factors for hypertension.The Nomogram model constructed using these risk factors,its area under ROC curve(AUC)was 0.814(95%CI:0.795~0.832),and the calibration plot showed that the calibration curve was close to the standard curve,indicating that the model had good predictive ability and stability.CONCLUSION The prevalence of hypertension among employees in the university is high,and age,overweight,obesity,abdominal obesity,high FBG,and hyperuricemia are risk factors for hypertension.

关 键 词：高血压 危险因素 列线图预测模型 

分 类 号：R541.31[医药卫生—心血管疾病]