2025年中国能源形势和煤炭消费达峰时间的研判  

Analysis and projections on China’s energy landscape in 2025 and the timing of peak coal consumption

作　　者：孙宝东 滕霄云 张帆 潘莹 门东坡 韩一杰 SUN Baodong;TENG Xiaoyun;ZHANG Fan;PAN Ying;MEN Dongpo;HAN Yijie(China Energy Technology and Economics Research Institute,Changping,Beijing 102211,China)

机构地区：[1]国家能源集团技术经济研究院,北京市昌平区102211

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2025年第3期33-41,共9页China Coal

摘　　要：2024年我国经济稳中有进,高质量发展扎实推进,能源消费呈现总量趋稳、结构持续优化的特征。展望2025年,在财政政策持续发力和经济增长韧性的支撑下,能源消费总量将保持增长,预计为61.4亿~62.3亿t标准煤(发电煤耗法),但受高基数效应与产业结构优化影响,增速略有放缓,预期在3.0%~4.5%之间。煤炭消费同比持平,如遇极端天气或高载能产品出口超预期等情况,可能略有增长,增速在1.5%左右。若无极端因素影响,煤炭消费有望在2025年进入峰值平台期,在“十五五”期间将维持这一峰值水平;石油消费总量基本持平或略降,石油消费或已达到峰值;天然气和非化石能源消费增长,非化石能源消费占比将超额完成“十四五”规划目标。化石能源生产方面,煤炭产量预计持平,但具有较强增长韧性,进口略降,但维持在5亿t左右的高位;原油产量稳定在2亿t以上,天然气供应增长6%左右。预计2025年我国用电量增速为5.5%~6.5%,全社会用电量将达10.4万亿~10.5万亿kWh。In 2024,China's economy demonstrated steady progress,with high-quality development advancing solidly.Energy consumption exhibited stabilization in total volume and continuous optimization in structure.Looking ahead to 2025,supported by sustained fiscal policy efforts and economic growth resilience,total energy consumption is expected to continue growing,projected to reach 6.14-6.23 billion tons of standard coal equivalent(coal consumption method for power generation).However,due to the high base effect and industrial structure optimization,the growth rate is anticipated to slightly slow to 3.0%-4.5%.Coal consumption is expected to remain flat year-on-year,though extreme weather or higher-than-expected exports of energy-intensive products could lead to a marginal increase of around 1.5%.Barring extreme factors,coal consumption is likely to enter a peak plateau in 2025 and maintain this level through the 15th Five-Year Plan period(2026-2030).Fossil oil consumption is projected to remain stable or decline slightly,potentially having already peaked.Natural gas and non-fossil energy consumption will grow,with the share of non-fossil energy exceeding the targets set in the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025).Regarding fossil energy production,coal output will stabilize but retain strong growth resilience,while coal imports may dip slightly but remain high at around 500 million tons.Crude oil production will stay above 200 million tons,and natural gas supply is expected to grow by approximately 6%.China’s electricity consumption in 2025 is forecasted to increase by 5.5%-6.5%,reaching 10.4-10.5 trillion kilowatt-hours.

关 键 词：能源形势 达峰 用电量 新能源装机 煤炭 石油 天然气 非化石能源 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] TD-9[矿业工程]