基于LMDI-Tapio模型的中国民航碳排放驱动因素与脱钩效应研究  

Driving Factors and Decoupling Effects of Carbon Emissions from Civil Aviation in China Based on LMDI-Tapio Model

作　　者：田利军 徐森雨 TIAN Lijun;XU Senyu(China Civil Aviation Environmental and Sustainable Development Research Center,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学中国民航环境与可持续发展研究中心,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期73-85,共13页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BJY020)。

摘　　要：中国民航快速增长的碳排放成为实现“双碳”目标的阻碍。为了准确把握中国民航发展过程中的脱钩状态,洞悉不同发展阶段脱钩的关键影响因素和作用机理,基于2000—2019年的面板数据,采用IPCC方法全面核算中国民航碳排放,并在此基础上构建LMDI-Tapio模型。研究发现:中国民航碳排放基本呈总量持续增长而强度逐年下降趋势,且未来能源效率提升有限;国民经济发展水平是碳排放的主要动力,能耗强度是长期抑制碳排放的驱动因素;航空碳排放与周转量、行业收入的脱钩关系逐渐以弱脱钩发展为扩张连接和扩张负脱钩为主,即行业减排空间进一步被压缩,面临行业发展和环境保护的双重压力;经济发展水平、运输强度和人口规模不会对脱钩起到积极作用,能耗强度促进了碳排放和周转量的脱钩,产业结构为行业发展脱钩作出最大努力。研究结论为民航部门的碳减排政策制定提供理论依据和经验证据。The rapid growth of carbon dioxide emissions from China’s civil aviation has become a major obstacle to achieving the“dual carbon”goals.To accurately assess the decoupling status in the process of China’s civil aviation development and understand the key influencing factors and mechanisms of decoupling at different stages of development,this study comprehensively accounts for China’s civil aviation carbon emissions,using the panel data from 2000 to 2019 and the IPCC method.Based on this account,an LMDI-Tapio model is constructed.The results show that China’s civil aviation carbon emissions generally follow a trend of continuous growth in total volume but a decline in intensity year by year.However,future improvements in energy efficiency are limited.The level of national economic development is the primary driving force behind carbon emissions,while energy consumption intensity is the driving factor for long-term emission reduction.The decoupling relationship between aviation carbon emissions and turnover,as well as industry income,has gradually shifted from weak decoupling to expansionary connection and expansionary negative decoupling.This indicates a further compression of emission reduction space for the industry,resulting in dual pressures on industry development and environmental protection.The economic development level,transport intensity,and population size do not have a positive impact on decoupling,while energy consumption intensity promotes decoupling of carbon emissions and turnover.Additionally,industrial structure has made the greatest contribution to promoting decoupling for industry development.This research provides a theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the formulation of carbon reduction policies in the civil aviation sector.

关 键 词：中国民航 碳排放 因素分解 脱钩效应 LMDI-Tapio模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F205[经济管理—国民经济]