宿迁市土地利用时空演变特征及其驱动因素研究  

Research on spatio-temporal change and driving factors of land use in Suqian city

作　　者：郭龙 张晓博 朱萱 陈婷 GUO Long;ZHANG Xiaobo;ZHU Xuan;CHEN Ting(Land Expropriation and Survey Center of Suqian City,Suqian 223800,Jiangsu,China;School of Public Policy and Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]宿迁市征地勘测中心,江苏宿迁223800 [2]中国矿业大学公共管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《自然资源情报》2025年第2期15-24,共10页Natural Resources Information

基　　金：宿迁市征地勘测研究项目(编号:2023170018)。

摘　　要：研究宿迁市土地利用的时空演变及驱动因素,可以为苏北经济发展边缘区域的土地利用结构及布局优化提供理论参考。本文运用土地利用动态度、转移矩阵、标准差椭圆及景观格局指数等方法,分析土地利用结构及空间变化,并进一步利用主成分分析法探索土地利用变化驱动机制。研究表明,1996—2021年,宿迁市土地利用以耕地为主,除水域和建设用地之外,其余地类面积均逐年减少;地类转移多发生在耕地与建设用地、耕地与水域之间;研究期间土地利用变化受经济社会发展、产业结构、人口数量以及年均降水量的影响较大。宿迁市土地利用深受自然本底和经济社会发展的影响,城镇化进程中耕地不断被建设用地挤占,在未来发展中应着重注意提升土地集约利用水平、开发耕地后备资源。This paper studies the spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of land use in Suqian city,Jiangsu province,and provides a theoretical reference for the optimization of land use in the marginal areas of economic development in northern Jiangsu.Land use dynamics,land use transition matrix,landscape pattern index and standard deviation ellipse are used to analyze the land use structure and spatial change,and the driving mechanism of land use change is further explored by principal component analysis.The results show,from 1996 to 2021,the land use in Suqian city was dominated by cultivated land,and the area of other land types decreased year by year,except water area and construction land.The transformation of land types mainly occurred between the transfer of cultivated land to construction land and the transfer of cultivated land to water area.The land use change in the study period was greatly affected by socioeconomic development,industrial structure,population size,and average annual precipitation.In conclusion,in the process of urbanization,cultivated land is constantly occupied by construction land,so in the future development,attention should be paid to improving the level of intensive land use and developing cultivated land reserve resources.

关 键 词：土地利用 时空演变 驱动因素 主成分分析 宿迁市 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]