大湾区县域耕地“非粮化”驱动机制与治理路径  

Driving mechanism and governance path of“non-grain”cultivated land at county level in Great Bay Area

作　　者：张晓雯 侯丽 岳文泽[1] ZHANG Xiaowen;HOU Li;YUE Wenze(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州310058

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2025年第5期280-287,共8页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42471286)。

摘　　要：为探究耕地“非粮化”的形成机制,该研究以大湾区某县级行政区A为研究案例,采用GIS空间信息分析、多项Logistic回归等研究方法,探析耕地“非粮化”时空演变与驱动机制,并提出大湾区某县级行政区A耕地“非粮化”治理路径。结果表明:1)2010—2020年,A区耕地“非粮化”比率稳定在65%左右,其中,微弱损害类占比六至七成。2)以耕地地块为分析单元,探究自然、区位、制度等多因素对耕地“非粮化”利用的影响,对耕地“非粮化”转化贡献排前3的因子分别是耕地质量等级、距镇中心距离、是否位于高标准农田内。3)提出对不同类型耕地非粮化现象采取差异化行政管制措施,制定“监测-评价-预警-调节”的框架流程,对影响因素进行动态管控。因此,耕地“非粮化”现象在大都市郊区应当差异化行政管控,对其影响因素进行动态监测、评价、预警、调节。"Non-grain"cultivated land has dominated national food security in recent years,particularly with the various risk factors in the world.Among them,the moderate"non-grain"cultivated land,especially in the suburbs of metropolitan areas,has promoted the transformation and upgrading of the multi-function of agriculture.However,it is still lacking in the theoretical research and practical experience at the beginning of the"non-grain"cultivated land.In this study,the"non-grain"cultivated land was defined to develop a classification system.Furthermore,the empirical analysis included the GIS spatial information analysis and multiple Logistic regression.The study area was taken as the water town functional area of Dongguan,Guangdong Province,China.The results show that:1)The information on"non-grain"cultivated land was extracted from the data on land use with the survey and interviewed from 2010 to 2020.The ratio of"non-grain conversion"of cultivated land was stable at about 65%,among which the weakly damage accounted for 60%to 70%,progressive damage for 2%,and serious damage for 30%to 40%.The"non-grain conversion"occurred in five towns.Among them,the weak and progressive damage areas were mostly distributed in Machong Town.Serious damage area was distributed in Daojiao Town.There was a roughly similar spatial distribution of non-grain cultivated land.Only a small number of land types were changed from 2010 to 2015.There was a difference in the spatial distribution of cultivated land and non-grain cultivated land in 2020,2010,and 2015.2)Multiple Logistic regression showed that the land area and quality grade of cultivated land shared a positive impact on the"non-grain"cultivated land.There was no statistical significance in the land regularity among the natural factors.In location factors,The distance from the town center and rural residential area exhibited a positive influence on the"non-grain"cultivated land.While the distance from rivers,rural roads,and highways shared a negative influence on the"non-grain"cultivated

关 键 词：耕地"非粮化" 耕地保护 粮食安全 驱动机制 治理路径 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]