云南省农业碳排放特征及驱动因素分析——基于Kaya恒等式扩展与LMDI指数分解方法  

Characteristics and Driving Factors Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emission in Yunnan Province:Based on Expanded Kaya Identity and LMDI Decomposition Method

作　　者：张晓娇 毛昭庆 万思琦 董晓波[1] ZHANG Xiaojiao;MAO Zhaoqing;WAN Siqi;DONG Xiaobo(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information,Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Kunming 650205)

机构地区：[1]云南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,昆明650205

出　　处：《农学学报》2025年第3期101-108,共8页Journal of Agriculture

基　　金：云南省科技厅科技人才和平台计划——高层次科技人才及创新团队选拔专项“中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目”(202105AC160088);2022年度省级低碳引导专项资金项目“云南省2020年农业温室气体清单”(YNJCZB2022112);云南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所所基金项目“‘双碳’目标下云南省农业碳排放特征及其影响因素分析”(SJJ202202)。

摘　　要：运用IPCC经典碳排放计算理论,从农用物资投入、土壤氮排放、水稻种植和禽畜养殖4个方面对2005—2021年云南省农业碳排放进行了计算,并运用LMDI模型实证分析了农业碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)云南省农业碳排放总量呈波动式上升状态,可分为“波动下降—持续上升—波动下降”3个不同阶段,2021年碳排放量比2005年增加了22.38%,年均增长率为1.27%。(2)2021年云南省农业碳排放构成要素中,占比按高低排序为禽畜养殖(73.19%)、农用物资投入(14.42%)和农作物生长(12.39%)。(3)农业生产效率、农业经济水平和城镇化是导致云南省农业碳排放量增加的主要因素,而农业产业结构、就业结构和农村人口对农业碳减排起到促进作用。据此,应坚定不移推进城镇化快速发展,优化农业产业结构和就业结构,发展畜禽标准化规模养殖,推动农业农村现代化发展。Based on the classical IPCC carbon emission calculation theory,the agricultural carbon emissions were calculated in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2021,considering agricultural material input,soil nitrogen emissions,rice cultivation and livestock and poultry breeding.The influence factor decomposition was analyzed based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index.Results showed that:(1)the total agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province tended to increase from 2005 to 2021,showing a relatively obvious three-stage change characteristic of“fluctuating decrease-continuous increase-fluctuating decrease”.The carbon emissions in 2021 increased by 22.38%compared to 2005,with an average annual growth rate of 1.27%.(2)In 2021,the source structure of agricultural carbon emissions ranked as livestock and poultry breeding,agricultural material input and crop farming,average accounting for 73.19%,14.42%and 12.39%respectively.(3)The LMDI decomposition results showed that agricultural production efficiency,agricultural economic development level and urbanization were emission growth factors,while agricultural industrial structure,employment structure and rural population were emission reduction factors.Therefore,it is recommended to firmly promote the rapid development of urbanization,optimize the agricultural industry structure and employment structure,develop standardized scale breeding of livestock and poultry,and promote the modernization of agriculture and rural development.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 驱动因素 云南省 LMDI模型 区域差异 禽畜养殖 农业产业结构 

分 类 号：F37[经济管理—产业经济]