Transition from multi-year La Niña to strong El Niño rare but increased under global warming  

多年拉尼娜很少直接转换为强厄尔尼诺

作　　者：Fan Jia Wenju Cai Tao Geng Bolan Gan Wenxiu Zhong Lixin Wu Michael J.McPhaden 贾凡;蔡文炬;耿涛;甘波澜;钟文秀;吴立新;Michael J.McPhaden

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves,Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Qingdao 266000 [2]China Laoshan Laboratory,Qingdao 266237 [3]China Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(FDOMES)and Physical Oceanography Laboratory,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100 [4]China State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710061 [5]China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science&College of Ocean and Earth Sciences,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005 [6]China School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519000 [7]China NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory,Seattle,Washington DC 20005,USA

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2025年第5期756-764,共9页科学通报(英文版)

基　　金：National Key Research and Development Program of China(2020YFA0608801);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42376006);China's National Key Research and Development Projects(2023YFF0805200);Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory(LSKJ202203300);Fan Jia is supported by Laoshan Laboratory(LSKJ202202402);Taishan Scholars Program(tsqn202312265);Tao Geng is supported by NSFC project(42206209,and 42276006);China National Postdoctral Program for Innovative Talents(BX20220279);。

摘　　要：El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)exhibits a strong asymmetry between warm El Niño and cold La Niña in amplitude and temporal evolution.An El Niño often leads to a heat discharge in the equatorial Pacific conducive to its rapid termination and transition to a La Niña,whereas a La Niña persists and recharges the equatorial Pacific for consecutive years preconditioning development of a subsequent El Niño,as occurred in 2020–2023.Whether the multiyear-long heat recharge increases the likelihood of a transition to a strong El Niño remains unknown.Here,we show that such a transition is rare but more likely under transient greenhouse warming.In boreal spring and early summer after a multiyear La Niña,despite a substantial recharge in the western Pacific,thermocline remains anomalously shallow and sea surface temperature(SST)remains anomalously cold in the equatorial central Pacific.The cold conditions inhibit an ensuing eastward movement of atmosphere deep convection out of the warm western Pacific,delaying onset of ocean-atmosphere coupling,and hence growth of an El Niño.Under a high emission scenario,such a transition is still rare but more than twice as likely.The projected change is consistent with a projected weakening in climatological zonal SST gradient that promotes the eastward movement of atmosphere convection and a projected intensification in upper-ocean stratification of the equatorial Pacific that enhances the ocean-atmosphere coupling.Our result provides predictive insight of El Niño after multiyear La Niña,and advances our understanding of ENSO transition under greenhouse warming.

关 键 词：El Niño-Southern Oscillation transition multiyear La Niña greenhouse warming atmosphere deep convection 

分 类 号：P73[天文地球—海洋科学]