数字经济发展与地方财政可持续性  

The Development of the Digital Economy and the Sustainability of Local Fiscal Systems

作　　者：许慧[1] 王世杰 XU Hui;WANG Shijie(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学财政税务学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2025年第3期70-86,共17页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目“基于利益共容的区域环境治理府际协同问题研究”(LN2020J33);辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目“基于财政政策有效性的财政空间研究”(JYTQN2023163);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目“辽河流域生态环境府际协同治理研究”(L20BJY029)。

摘　　要：数字经济发展极大地提升了政府数字化治理水平,为实现地方财政可持续发展和区域协调性均衡发展提供了新机遇。本文基于2015—2021年中国278个地级市的平衡面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型探讨数字经济对地方财政可持续的影响及机制。研究发现,数字经济发展能够显著增强地方财政可持续性,该结论在经过内生性处理和一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。异质性分析结果表明,数字经济发展对地方财政可持续性的增强作用在财政透明度高、土地财政依赖度高、处于国家级城市群规划区域和国家重大战略规划区域的地级市中的效果更明显。机制分析结果表明,数字经济发展通过增加税收收入、缓解债务压力和提升财政支出效率增强地方财政可持续性。使用空间杜宾模型(SDM)的进一步分析发现,数字经济发展存在显著的空间溢出效应,其对相邻地区的地方财政可持续性也有增强作用。本文的研究为增强地方财政可持续性、实现区域协同发展提供了理论依据,为提升数智化政府治理水平提供了决策参考。The rapid growth of the digital economy has significantly fostered innovative development in the local economy and enhanced the digital governance capabilities of the government,thereby unlocking new opportunities for achieving fiscal sustainability and promoting balanced regional development.Existing literature on the relationship between the digital economy and local fiscal sustainability predominantly focuses on the non‐spatial or nonlinear effects of digital economy growth on fiscal health or examines how digital technology‐related fiscal activities influence government performance,corruption control,and local fiscal balances.However,there is limited research addressing the spatial dimensions of the digital economy’s impact on fiscal sustainability,as well as the potential spatial heterogeneity arising from regional development strategies during the digital economy’s expansion.This study assesses the development of the digital economy across China’s prefecture‐level cities from 2015 to 2021,utilizing seven indicators related to digitalization and digital finance.Using a balanced panel dataset covering 278 cities,this study applies the fixed effects model to explore the mechanisms through which the digital economy influences local fiscal sustainability,and the spatial spillover effects.The results indicate that the digital economy not only significantly enhances fiscal sustainability at the local level but also generates considerable spatial spillover effects,improving fiscal sustainability in neighboring regions.These findings remain robust after addressing endogeneity concerns and conducting various sensitivity tests.Moreover,this study introduces fiscal transparency and reliance on land‐based revenues as moderating variables to investigate heterogeneous effects.The results suggest that the positive impact of the digital economy on fiscal sustainability is more pronounced in cities with higher fiscal transparency and greater reliance on land‐based financing.Adopting a framework centered on th

关 键 词：数字经济 地方财政可持续性 区域发展 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]