基于VAR的高速公路与经济增长关系实证分析——以广东省为例  

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Highway and Economic Growth based on VAR model--Taking Guangdong Province as an Example

作　　者：蔡秀挺 陈海华 曹光 Cai Xiuting;Chen Haihua;Cao Guang

机构地区：[1]广东省交通规划设计研究院集团股份有限公司,广东广州510440 [2]广东省高速公路营运管理协会,广东广州510623

出　　处：《时代汽车》2025年第5期172-174,共3页Auto Time

摘　　要：本文选取了广东省2000—2022年的时间序列数据,构建了高速公路里程与地区生产总值的向量自回归模型,结合脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法,探究了高速公路建设发展与经济增长之间的关系,为区域科学发展提供数据支持。实证结果表明,广东省高速公路里程增长与经济总量增长之间存在显著的相互促进作用。高速公路建设对经济发展的促进作用持久稳定,但不及其他经济活动的贡献。This paper constructs a vector auto-regressive model between highway mileage and regional GDP using the time series data of Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2022,Combined with the impulse response function and the variance decomposition,it analyzes the relationship between highway construction and economic growth,to provide data support for regional scientifi c development.The empirical results indicate that,there is a signifi cant mutual promotion between the growth of highway mileage and GDP in Guangdong Province.the promotion eff ect of highway construction on economic development is long-lasting and stable,but it is inferior to the contribution of other economic activities.

关 键 词：高速公路 经济增长 VAR模型 广东省 

分 类 号：U41[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]