基于门槛效应的贵州省县域人口老龄化对新型城镇化的影响研究  

An empirical study on the impact of population aging on new-type urbanization in counties of Guizhou Province based on threshold effect

作　　者：郭兴 李旭东[1] 田俊 曹明浩 杨琦 GUO Xing;LI Xudong;TIAN Jun;CAO Minghao;YANG Qi(School of Geography and Environmental Science,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2025年第2期119-125,共7页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41261039);贵州第七次全国人口普查课题研究项目(8300-202201020036)。

摘　　要：随着我国人口老龄化问题的加深,在推进以县域为重要载体的新型城镇化过程中,研究人口老龄化对新型城镇化的影响具有重要意义。该文综合运用熵值法与门槛效应模型,分析2010—2020年贵州省县域人口老龄化和新型城镇化水平时空变化特征,揭示人口老龄化对新型城镇化的影响机制。结果表明:①研究期内贵州省人口老龄化程度逐渐加深,呈现出自东向西递减的分布格局;②2010—2020年贵州省新型城镇化水平不断提升,高值区主要分布在黔中城市群、遵义都市圈以及各市州中心地区,总体呈现出自西北向东南递减的分布格局;③门槛效应模型显示,贵州省县域人口老龄化对新型城镇化发展呈现出先促进后阻碍的作用,两者间呈“倒U形”发展关系。研究结果可为贵州省在推进新型城镇化进程中积极应对人口老龄化问题提供依据。With the deepening of population aging in China,it is of great significance to study the impact of population aging on new-type urbanization in the process of promoting the new-type urbanization with county as an important carrier.Based on this,taking Guizhou Province as a case,this paper comprehensively uses the entropy method and threshold effect model to study the spatio-temporal characteristics of population aging and new-type urbanization in Guizhou Province from 2010 to 2020,and reveals the influencing mechanism of population aging on new-type urbanization.It is found as follows.①From 2010 to 2020,the population aging in Guizhou Province gradually deepened,showing a gradually decreasing distribution pattern from east to west.②From 2010 to 2020,the level of new-type urbanization in Guizhou Province continued to improve,and the high value was mainly distributed in the central Guizhou urban agglomeration,Zunyi metropolitan area and the central areas of cities and states,showing a gradually decreasing distribution pattern from northwest to southeast on the whole.③The threshold effect model showed that county population aging in Guizhou Province first promoted and then hindered the development of new-type urbanization.When population aging is less than the first threshold and between the first threshold and the second threshold,it will promote the development of new-type urbanization,and when population aging is greater than the second threshold,it will hinder the development of new-type urbanization.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 新型城镇化 门槛效应 贵州省 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F299.21