基于概率统计和专家评价的飞机供电系统遂行任务能力评估  

An Assessment of Capability for Mission in Aircraft Power Supply System Based on Probability Statistics and Expert Evaluation

作　　者：胡辰宇 潘晋新 方欣 焦晓璇 景博[1] HU Chenyu;PAN Jinxin;FANG Xin;JIAO Xiaoxuan;JING Bo(Aviation Engineering School,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710038,China;Unit 94778,Shanghai 200082,China;Institute of Education Economics and Management,Beijing University of Science and Technology,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学航空工程学院,西安710038 [2]94778部队,上海200082 [3]北京科技大学教育经济与管理研究所,北京100083

出　　处：《空军工程大学学报》2025年第2期11-18,共8页Journal of Air Force Engineering University

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基金(2022JQ-586)。

摘　　要：针对飞机供电系统遂行任务能力评估问题,提出基于统计分析与专家评价融合的方法。首先,对某型飞机供电系统进行介绍,分析其主要故障模式与故障原因;其次,通过供电系统故障统计数据,拟合出供电系统故障威布尔分布,并针对装备遂行任务的需求,提出基于后验知识的任务期间装备故障概率计算方法。在此基础上,针对遂行任务具体环境、强度等因素的差异,采用基于专家经验打分的方式,综合考虑振动、负载、自然环境等因素,对供电系统环境因素进行评级。通过某型飞机供电系统实际故障数据进行验证,结果表明,该方法能够有效预测供电系统关键部件遂行任务条件下的故障概率,并对任务环境因素进行综合评估,以支撑遂行任务决策。In view of the task capability evaluation in power supply system at an aircraft,a method based on statistical analysis and expert evaluation is proposed.Firstly,the power supply system at a certain type of aircraft is introduced,and its main failure modes and failure reasons are analyzed.Secondly,the Weibull distribution of power supply system faults is fitted through the statistical data from power supply system faults,and a method of calculating equipment fault probability during the task based on posterior knowledge is proposed to meet the requirements of equipment tasks.On this basis,according to the differences in the specific environment and intensity of task,the environmental factors in the power supply system are rated by using the method of expert experience scoring in comprehensive consideration of the vibration,load,natural environment and other factors.The results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the failure probability of the key components in the power supply system under the condition of fulfilling the mission,and comprehensively evaluate the mission environmental factors,supporting the decision of fulfilling the mission.

关 键 词：供电系统 威布尔分布 专家评价 装备能力评估 可靠性建模 

分 类 号：V267[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航制造工程]